I think we all share some frustration there maca. but the more...

I think we all share some frustration there maca. but the more analysis i do on ACL the move value i see.

I was thinking more about Pete's comments on 'securitising' the EU revenues as a means of funding the trials. I assume this means selling the rights to all or part of the EU revenues. If thats right then the next question is whats the value of the EU revenues.

I calculated those today as follows.

NPAT, based on 6% market growth per year, 38% market share at average 25% price discount between for year 1 & 2, then 25% market share at 50% discount for year 3 through 5 (this allows for risk of second ANDA):
- year 1: 10m
- year 2: 13m
- year 3: 7m
- year 4: 8m
- year 5: 8m

At a discount rate of 17% and 0% terminal growth rate, i get the following values:
- terminal value: 52m
- present value of terminal value: 22m
- discount factor on terminal value: 43%
- implied value (terminal value + annuity): 41m
- value per share: 21c

So the value of EU revenues is about 41m.

So i am predicting Pete will solve the funding issue by selling all or a part of the UE revenue stream at a value of 41m (give or take 10%). Some of that money will be retained to fund the trial and the rest will be returned to investors as an untaxed dividend. Thats my stake in the ground. (Keep in mind i have been wrong about many things in the last though:) )