FunbetIt seems to me that HK is some sort of hybrid between the...

Funbet

It seems to me that HK is some sort of hybrid between the US and China.

Its currency is pegged to the US and its market action seems to reflect both.

Falling to 19,000 by Easter would not be hard considering the volatility at present.

It does seem that that completes 3 waves down or an ABC formation as does many other markets.

This becomes crucial as ABC corrections are just that, a completed correction. A futher leg down suggests an inpulse move of 5 waves or 3 legs and means phase 1 only with much more to come after a big rally. EW is open to all sorts of interpretations and if 5 waves does develop down, it is possible that the August/Oct rally was a big irregular B wave that means it could still be a completion. That's why I am no longer a huge fan of EW. It is easy to label after the event.

The China markets look bloody awful, with a major breakdown from a an obvious long term base.

Wall St doesn't always reflect Main St so how much the China markets affect the actually economy is hard to determine. Probably it is a matter of duration. Briefish market declines can leave economies relatively unscathed, as they are anticipatory and get it wrong 2 out of 3 on average. The longer market declines persist the greater the chance they do actually represent the "truth".

I think China markets have a very good chance of declining into Oct/Nov and it could be severe.

I think I have been wrong more than once or a hundred.