Telfer the Elephant in the Room, page-71

I'm glad @chateauneuf came away impressed by Roger's presentation. I got a very different feeling after my talk with Rodda, but that only shows that people interpret things differently. I don't doubt the board's expertise. It's just that the things needed to send the share price up are beyond their control and knowledge. They hope the new drilling in 2023 will deliver great results in terms of volume, depth and grade. But, as with this year's, that's an unknown and it won't become known for a long time, during which the share price will only go down. There's simply nothing to send it up short of a takeover or massive discovery. Both of which might happen but are hardly worth banking on.

It’s probably too late for many shareholders to sell. As one recent poster put it, they’re so underwater now that they can only hold and hope because realising the loss would be too damaging. What a dilemma. I recall many people writing that AZY is their biggest investment by far. Watching the ongoing wreckage must be soul-destroying for them. It is for me, and I’ve only got 30% of my original shares left after selling the others at a profit. Even so, when I think of what I hoped for when I bought in, and the lost opportunities along the way ...

If I went in for shorting, I'd be doing it with this stock. It's sitting there with a bow on it. I don't, so am content to stick with Plan A and dump my remaining shares in June. Around that time there will be another CR which – if it isn't already there – will drive the share price below 1c. There might be two CRs; a smaller one around July (as one poster nicely put it, a "pay the directors/keep the lights on" CR), and a big one at the end of 2023 to help pay for the proposed mine & plant. Or maybe they will be combined into one. Either way, you know what to expect. Why buy before then, assuming you are so hot for AZY you think it’s worth buying at all?

I'd like to know the maths behind building a $300m mine and processing plant with an AISC of around $1500/oz and a gold price around $1700. It's barely viable even for a very big company. For AZY, it’s nuts. Seems to me they're banking on the viability coming from: (a) massive new discoveries expanding the total resource; and (b) the gold price going up into the $2000s. If that's right I'd like to know if there is a Plan B, because Plan A is recklessly optimistic. Correction: delusional.