telstra wireless network can compete with nbn

Article in today’s SMH by DAN OAKES

http://www.smh.com.au/business/nbn-battle-goes-down-to-the-wire-20091125-jppw.html

Extract…
One of Australia's most respected telecommunications analysts has said Telstra's ability to compete with the national broadband network by using wireless is significantly greater than he originally predicted.

Gold Sachs JB Were analyst Christian Guerra said in a note to clients yesterday that the falling price of wireless broadband, rising quality and the boom in 3G-enabled devices meant the swing towards wireless broadband would continue.
Mr Guerra revised his estimate of wireless penetration of the broadband market by 2015 from 135 per cent to 150 per cent (many consumers have more than one device). He lowered his estimate of fixed line broadband penetration from 66 per cent to 63 per cent.

"The ferocity of the shift from fixed line to wireless/mobile has again caught us by surprise. Yet again, we have underestimated the pace of this shift," Mr Guerra said.
Mr Guerra said Telstra was embracing this shift to wireless because it has a technologically superior 3G network (which many industry figures consider to be former chief executive Sol Trujillo's only positive legacy), it is meeting customer demand, it makes superior margins from mobile and it can use wireless to fight back against the $43 billion fibre-to-the-home NBN.

"We believe that, given the arrival of wireless broadband as a viable, cheaper alternative to fixed broadband, many customers who previously did not have broadband connectivity are choosing wireless access over fixed," Mr Guerra said in his note.
Mr Guerra did caution that wireless suffers from limitations not present in fixed line, including an inability to handle multiple heavy users in one house and multichannel high definition TV.

However, he said the continuing boom in mobile broadband means Telstra would have greater capacity to compete with the national broadband network.
Mr Guerra said his 12 month target price for Telstra was unchanged at $4.40 a share, and recommended a buy.

Comment…

This adds to posts such as by razorack (nbn facing increased opposition) - just how flawed the concepts behind NBN are, and certainly will be proven in the future (at cost to all of us).