Mike " the medium to longer term EBIT contribution may only be...

Mike

" the medium to longer term EBIT contribution may only be $60M to $80M per year based on the 2H 2016 figures"

I don't see how you can base much at all on 2H 2016 figs. Certainly not ongoing EBIT. We need comparisons where the accounting policies/bases are the same to get a handle on actual EBIT. ( That is a fundamental base of accounting)

There are also the small matter of the disruptive office move and reorganisation. We both know too that QPP will have milked its last 4 months of ownership for cash. The results we are about to receive should tell us a little bit more about ongoing cash flow and EBIT. ...but NOT the likely ongoing EBIT and cash flow. It isn't rocket science to work out that stakeholders can be confident that AUG 17 is even more likely to shed light on the future.

I wish I did but I certainly don't know the terms of the escrow ...so SGH ( according to independant barrister) may end up with all or some of A$ 81 M cash back on its purchase. Bergo thinks escrow is related to NIHL, but since nil was paid - methinks that unlikely. It is possible SGH were misled somehow and A$ 81m cash comes home to daddy.

There were rumours that ins cos were dragging feet at the QPP PSD purchase time. Not surprising given the RT shenanigans. It is clear they are still dragging feet on NIHL . They cannot do so forever. I certainly expect good news on that front during 2017.

SGH paid 6.2 times the expected future earnings. Peer Redde plc is now valued at 20 times past earnings. It seems highly improbable that experienced directors can not work out Future EBIT after due dilligence. We all know what happens in a Turnaround and that this one would take 18 months until we could begin to see actual trends and actual EBIT based on consistent accounting rules and bases at the beginning and end of an accounting period.

I would be really amazed if you are half right on EBIT but we wont really find out until this time next year. We may glimmer the actual EBIT ( bearing in mind that NIHL was always going to take 2 years )
later this month. Feb 17 wont tell us the full story.

However if there is close to $180M EBIT expectations in SGH and we glimpse it in 2017.....then shareholders are likely to be happy bunnies in 2017. A wee shimmie and a glimmer in Feb 17 might be nice. A bit of guidance wont do any harm either.

Mel

Seems the Welsh copying the Jocks - outplaying the opposition until the last 4 mins .
I expect cuter rugby in Paris today.