tentative thursday?, page-3

LOL , the bulls are out of the pen.

last nights bounce was very unconvincing.

* not exactly a volume spike
* big sell off near the end
*index below bollinger band so was primed for a one day respite


I believe China's market may have been the key to this one day wonder. once again I refer to one of the first articles Martis ever sent me. A bear market rally is defined as when an index breaks north of the 50 dma (I now use a 55dma being a fib number and T Laundry uses it.....it does work better) and will probably pull up and retreat at the 200dma. China had a volatile bear market rally starting early nov......this, I believe, is what held us up in the west at that time. As soon as china hit the 200dma a couple of weeks ago, as Peter Pumpkinhead astutely pointed out, they started to retreat and western markets started to cave the same day.......

But the day before yesterday China bounced off its 55 dma. I was watching our market and japans yesteday when China opened green. A follow up green in china seemed to flag to the world that the chinese bear rally was not completely dead and instantly Japan, Oz and US futures responded.

However I think it is a one day wonder. It is not surprising to me at all that after such a strong rally china had one last little bounce off the 55 dma

I will watch chinas open today with interest.

for the record I know that there is a rally coming but I can see nothing in price level support nor cycles to indicate that it will be as of last night (except for the China syndrome). I would be surprised to start the rally from this point