I have been struggling to get a clear picture on the discount to Newc that 5,500kcal FOB DBCT or Newc may be fetching. An article I read today has some updates.
The gap between 6,000kcal Newc and 5,500kcal Newc has widened to a 40% discount, at times only 20%. Suggests BA in current market fetching around the USD$100-$120/t or A$130-160/t. So conservatively we could assume a $70/t EBITDA margin on future sales.
API4 out of Richards bay is USD$150/t at the moment. So there is massive margin playing out in SA and I expect continued success in the SA small volumes of export.
TER to hit 20c this week, page-58
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