Good quick maths, but the company is forecasting even better results. The stability in the NEWC price over the last quarter would suggest that this forecast is achievable.
The export tonnage forecast QoQ is relatively unchanged (612kT prior quarter vs. 640kT forecast), which means the EBITDA margin would be increasing from A$138/t to A$281/t. Prior quarter the operating cost was A$142/t (A$87M costs on 612kT of sales), assuming this operating cost stays constant at A$142/t (it is inflated due to high royalties) than that would assume a sales price of A$423/t on coal sold, or roughly US$296/t.
US$296/t is roughly 77% of the NEWC price, which all seems reasonable and checks out...
So on that basis I'm banking on the A$180M EBITDA from BA alone in the current quarter, which will mean >A$200M EBITDA for the quarter, then with the lag in contract price to spot price you can essentially lock this in for Q1 FY23 (Sept Q) - so it is not unreasonable for 20-30c of dividends being paid over the next 12mnths - a lot to like and now that i've run the numbers again I might be a buyer at these levels.
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