Tesla battery Shortage, page-2

Great article smob. Another confirmation or piece in the puzzle on what I've been hammering about. They need 94% of 2019 graphite production to build 20m cars. 10% of 2019 production was used for EV's. 15% in 2020. (Don't get confused with they need 94% of what they currently use for EV's atm.)

Between now and 2030 they are going to build +120m BEV's. That's 6.15mt just for EV's (~50kg/vehicle). Add in the 8mt they need over the next 10 years for what they already use graphite for: pencils, brake lining, electrodes, solar panels, dry lubricants etc. Plus another 2-4mt for hydrogen cells. Approximately 1/3 of the Chinese mines will become exhausted by 2030 (my educated guess but some will. The Chinese are cagey).

Add in, Balama is the only deposit which can be mined at >120 kt/pa ever discovered. Graphite deposits above 50 kt/pa don't grow on trees.

Personally, I don't believe Tesla will hit 20m per year unless they can corner the EV market. There simply won't be the demand. VW was the biggest producer last year for the full year with ~9m and have just been overtaken by Toyota on a monthly basis. VW production has dropped slightly as the chip shortage worsens and they convert more of their manufacturing capacity to EV's.

The above figures are extrapolated by the current amount of graphite required per vehicle. Trucks, buses and pick-ups will require 2-3x more graphite. If they electrify mining dump trucks, they'll need 1t each. Makes for 1 hell of a skateboard. I think they'll take the hydrogen cell route which requires graphite but not 1t.

On a side note, watch out for how well Toyota go in the next 5 years. Been reading some articles about them becoming pig headed about EV's and want to follow the hydrogen cell route. They are converting some of their models to EV's but not in a sustained manor (hedging) like the rest of the car manufactures. They may get caught out like Kodak. In the sort term production/profit might increase as the rest convert to EV's but long term is a different matter as emission regulatory issues bite.

Hydrogen fuels cells may only emit water but up to 60% of the energy they produce is used in making the actual hydrogen. Usual wind and solar. The power used to produce wind and solar only use 20% of total power output.

It's a bit like but note quite, a synthetic graphite producer saying we are green because we use hydro power. The point is, if all the hydro power wasn't used in making synthetic graphite, they could divert the power to be used by households and other industry's which rely on a coal fired power station. It's doublespeak.