Consider the following points: 1. Syrah has a 5 year offtake...

Consider the following points:

1. Syrah has a 5 year offtake agreement with Marubeni for up to 50,000 tons in Japan and Korea (good article).

2. Recent analyst calls have suggested that we can expect future announcements for Syrah to supply the Chinese with graphite for their battery requirements; demand has recently risen strongly for electric vehicles, and this exponential trend is likely to accelerate (see here and here).

3. Despite points 1 & 2, we are building a spherical plant in Louisiana??? On the surface this doesn't make sense economically unless ... we are on track to supply Tesla.

For a long time I was sceptical that Tesla would use natural graphite but in my opinion, we now have evidence that Tesla follows the natural graphite market and the "large scale mining operations [that are] being commercialized with high quality materials: [and] lower production costs"; i.e. read Syrah. I make the next leap that Tesla would only be following the natural graphite market if it planned to use natural graphite.

Whilst before it was a hope, I am now 99.99% confident that Tesla is somewhere in the potential customer list that was released in November:


Besides Alevo, I can't see any other entity that would justify setting up a manufacturing facility in the USA when you factor in increased shipping costs.

The numbers also make sense. 20,000 tons by the end of 2018 would be about right for the Model 3 production ramp up, increasing to 60,000 tons as Tesla hits maximum output at the Gigafactory.

Cheers.