0.4c is unrealistic. 4c is 'possible', though I'd say...

0.4c is unrealistic. 4c is 'possible', though I'd say 'relatively unlikely' (that would be 2.6p in the UK). Personally I'd say an absolute bottom would be in the realm of 4p, maybe 3.5p if the market really doesn't like it. 2.6p would equate to a market cap of £52m- which would basically be Texas+Trinidad NAV valued halved, and while oilers do normally trade at a discount, 50% is a bit much, and there'd be no exploratory upside priced in at all then.

With that said, IF the well turns out to be a duster, which I've got no idea on either way, the main thing to remember is not to buy anything at all for a few days- maybe even a few weeks, until the price stabilises and the volume of sells dries up. Normally what happens from what I've seen is you get a 30-60% drop on the day the duster is announced (I've seen both values, and quite a few in between). You then get a 5-15% drop the next day, and after that smaller rises and falls of 1-3%. I've never seen a time where the second day after a duster announcement shows a rising share price (and obviously never on the first day either), though that doesn't mean it's never happened.

When Buffett made his comment about how wealth is 'transferred from the impatient to the patient', I don't think he was merely talking about the length of time you hold a share for. He was also talking about 'waiting patiently' for the right time to buy in as well. The question of 'when to buy' is just as important as 'when to sell'.

After the Georgia news, regardless of success or failure, one certainty is that they'll be no more big drills for a while. It'll take time to get the rig into position for the second Georgia drill. Puntland, even if it does get spudded, will take months to reach TD, and the Herrera formations won't be drilled for a few months yet.

It's in those quiet times the best buying opportunities present themselves IMO, as the 'hot money' goes off chasing the next big thing with imminent news. Think back to last November after the Georgia Reserve Report came out saying there was 2 billion barrels of potential. It was good news, but we all knew there was going to be no news for a while after that (until January). The result was the initial spike to 9p didn't last, and a couple of weeks later you could buy at 6p, and could do so for about a month (this was the 'bottom', and was marked by a stable price, and low volumes).