Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

TFC

Click for more information

7.42%

$1.31 tfs corporation limited

The end of the calendar year in the US, is also the end of their...

First 2 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
city1866

1,853 Posts.

185

16/12/16

01:28

Post #: 21377924
Share

Originally posted by Lies&damnlies ↑

I created the last thread line discussion and its about time we had another thread line.

To start with I am recalling parts of my last post on the previous thread in triple brackets.

((( As I posted earlier on this topic, my strategy for the next couple of months are
* wait to this DCL (daily cycle low for TFC) plays over the next couple of days
* anticipating an Aussie stock Santa rally (as has happened over the last few years) and sell TFC into the rally taking some profit off the table. I won't be holding beyond 29 Dec. Sometimes the Santa rallies can last into the early weeks of January but I won't be taking the risk. The Fibs suggest that TFC could rally to the 1.75 - 1.83 region but this is only a guide. I'll set a price post Christmas and watch.
* Aussie markets seem to tank in January and February and TFC follows this trend and the shorter's have a field day exaggerating the effect. Sell high and buy low _)))

Why do I think the above is going to happen?

What happens in the Aussie Santa rally. For the last three year after the Fed announcement the Aussie dollar fell or paused for a very short short period and then rose into the late post Santa period before the end of the year,

The weight of money went into Aussie stocks , mostly across the board of stocks. Its source come from incredibly powerful organisations ( Parts of the creature of Jekyll Island), I can hear many of you now saying what the F**k. DYOR. It doesn't matter what the source is but the strategy is to buy low aussie stocks in low aud/usd terms
forming a rise in both aud/usd terms and the Aussie stock prices. They get the double whammy in both stock terms and exchange rates. Yes it takes a very powerful volume of currency to cause these both to happen, a virtual s**t load.

Do I hear , give me proof. Look last year when the FED raised interest rates by 0.25% in December , same as this year. Look at the charts to see how the AUD/usd rose from the 16 december 2015 to the 31st December 2015. Look how the Aussie ^aord rose at the same time. They made profit from currency and stocks, they made it happen by the shear pressure of volume purchasing power, irresistible.

Why us. Well Australia is a friendly and politically stable country (albeit with a controlled turncoat in charge), its economy is small enough to be malleable to an outside rush of capital. Do I think this will happen again this year? As a stats man man I say yes with a 70% of confidence. Why? These big world players are very successful and are creatures of habit.

What happens next? They take their profit (sell stocks and pull the money back overseas). They also pull their money out of overseas markets at the same time. All of a sudden the world and aussie market are falling through January and February. See how many time this has happened in the last few years.

Anyway I wanted to open a new thread for discussion. Looking forward to the posts.

cheers Lies

Expand

The end of the calendar year in the US, is also the end of their financial year.

That means mutual funds and individuals sell losers late in Dec to lock in losses.(fall). They then buy in early January (rise) to reinvest new funds. "The January Effect" is well known and people have anticipated for years (it may now occur before the new year)

Strangely, Friday is the most profitable day of the week, Monday, the worst. The same happens with other events (can't remember them)

Australia is a commodity currency proxy and the 5th most traded currency, rising central bank interest rates indicate, rising economic activity, which means rising demand for commodities, which means higher demand for AUD. And yes stocks seem to move in tandem with the exchange rate. ASX moves up, when the AUD/USD moves up

Your on the money Lies.

TFC Price at posting: $1.64 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

CC9

The USA's dominance requires a domestic lithium supply chain. Chariot stands to benefit

ASX Market Close: Index gains 1% after interest rates pause | June 18, 2024

SS1

Sun Silver gets that drill to thrill feeling from high grade hits at Maverick Spring

SRX

Worker dies at Sierra Rutile mine

MiningNews Select Conference: Look further afield for funding projects, advises Rick Rule

There are more pages in this discussion • 66 more messages in this thread...

First 2 Last

Add TFC (ASX) to my watchlist

SPONSORED BY