Very hard to find a company that's in similar industry and that's at all comparable....yes we have had CUV and SRX and a couple of other take over deals like 47 and Myokardia....tonight I give you another one.
Again, take it with a pinch of salt...there are differences of course and it's all at a high level and speculative info...sure, our journey is very different in terms of where we are coming from, what we have, what kinda company we are and heck, what countries we originate from leave aside the molecules at play and the markets we will sell into....but I can draw some rough insights anyway.
THE COMPANY
TG Therapeutics, listed in US under the ticker TGTX. They are a development stage bio-tech/pharma.
TG is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the commercialisation of various treatments for B-cell malignancies and autoimmune diseases.
Now these guys have a couple of buns in the oven so to speak...Their main lead drugs are:
Umbralisib, an investigational dual inhibitor which is being evaluated in phase 2b and phase 3 trials in patients with non-hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL).
Ublituximab, an investigational glycoengineered monoclonal antibody that targets also focuses on certain cells for patients with NHL and relapsing forms of MS.
Essentially they operate in the space of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and Blood Cancer.
WHAT HAPPENED? IT'S THEIR FIRST TIME TOO
They recently in December 2020, released positive data in their P3 trial...now there are plenty of companies that have done that, I chose this one because:
1) It is a recent example 2) They have never had a P3 drug before so it's slightly easier to compare at least to some rough extent...it will be their first major foray into their a major commercial operation 3) Another similarity is that yesterday they also presented at the JP Morgan conference. 4) On Feb 15th 2021 they will have their first PDUFA date (this is the official date the FDA reviews the drug) 5) They have another date for their second drug in June of this year and a further one possibly by the end of the year.
THEIR SHARE PRICE ACTION
Take a look at their price action. The chart below is in weeks. While we can certainly observe their share behaviour over time and think of percentage increases/decreases, one really needs to use market cap to market cap if we are to compare the two (them and us).
For example. back in October 2018, their market cap was approx 689 Million USD. That's roughly 883 Million AUD or about 54% bigger than us as of today...
Let's firstly investigate what has happened in the recent past...
TG Chart, 4 main parts over the last couple of years.
The below points also translate to the numbers I've put on the chart above.
1) Dum de dum de dum de dah....we all go through it....long boring waits...consolidation...a little up...a little down, but over all action? Flat and boring...don't forget...this is in weeks! Particularly from end of Sept 2018 all the way through to the end of November 2019...not much happened at least in terms of their SP. The blue parallel lines are the consolidation channel...
2) Finally a breakout and on meaningful volumes...their ave volume during the consolidatory period (point 1 above) was around 2,000,000 shares on a daily basis...that one spike which carried the share price through resistance was a crazy 18 million shares in terms of volume! 9x the average.
3) They then went through a period of several months in a tight one standard deviation channel from around $16 to $30.
4) Finally at the end of this channel in early December just last year, they got news of two of their trials top line data successfully hitting their primary endpoints. Their shares rocketed from the high $27's straight through to $50 plus, almost a 100% lift.
LEARNINGS
Well a few...
1. There are boring times ahead...perhaps it's a little different for us, as we have a few things going on..admittedly we also have two major phase 3's but there are a few other things like the twins and potential data coming back along with trial 008 and potentially some revenue (SAS program though that might be relatively small?).
2) A breakout of a trading range will happen. As we hit the world stage, as the IND's get filed, as data gets back.
3) Now comes the interesting stuff...it's just one company I'm comparing here so take that into consideration...These guys broke out of their consolidation trading range in early May 2020 right? They had their top line read out in early Dec of the same year...that's about 7 months BEFORE their data was released. This potentially could be a little clue for us as to when our share price could start moving....again it's hard for me to really jump to any conclusions here because there are many different factors and layers and milestones for them and for us...plenty of differences.
BUT my point is that we should see a SP lift some time before the 3rd phase read outs...we could find, independently of anything else that happens with us, that we start to lift also a number of months before these slated read-outs, particularly if the top line data read out dates are known in advance and are roughly adhered to.
4). In their case, the results were good and this was not a case of buy the rumour and sell the news....the SP went up and stayed up. I don't know what will happen in our case...as I said, there are many layers we will have, at the time of our P3 read out we might already have some good revenue via the Aussie Provisional as an example, we might have a distribution deal in place giving us a good base...it's all exciting possibilities ahead of us in my views.
So market cap to market cap tells me that back in their consolidation phase they were around the 883 AUD mil mark and they launched to where they are today, $9.37 Bil AUD...so that's a lift of 10.6 X...Again, as an extremely rough guide, if you could apply a similar story to us...multiply our shares by 10.6 times...we get a rather cool $27 or so. This is potentially what, a couple of years away...24 months?
Lot's of caveats as these are two very different markets and companies. One example of this is a bit of an explanation of the market they are playing in. They will have a market runway/scope of around $10 B USD...of which there are currently two main other competitors playing in that space. They are expecting they will be first in line/best in class in this space. They expect to be profitable in a couple of years from now.
If nothing else it provides a small insight on where we might go. Yes we need to be patient but the tide should finally turn more in our favour, specially starting in the next couple of months. Only my views.
(20min delay)