tgi friday, page-52

Calvo becoming bullish. 5015-5150?

We need: $60 CBA, $45 BHP, $30 WBC to get there. I tend to aim low. This is a period of consolidation, cannot have new high without a few months time. The downside risk is higher than upside. There is no need to be hurry to move up. But I guess there is a very little chance for another crash. I guess Bob Prechter won't agree with me. He looking for a new low lower than March low.

I guess he might be right in gold's term, but I hardly agree with him in nominal term. He keep citing the South Sea Bobble, the great depression, and we will repeat it. My argument is very simple, the great depress could happened in 1970s, but it did not. Are we following the 1970s pattern? Not yet. We have not seen the inflation. It must be coming. If not, the greed government, grocery retailers will do it.

Check these: electricity bills, water bills, council rate, bus tickets, eggs, telehphone charges, payTV bils, "fresh" vegs, meats, rice, bottle water, ... Tell me which one has dropped the price? (one exception: Australian wine, they are cheap than bottle water now in some cases)

$80,000 on stamp duty for purchase a house? You can buy a few houses 30 years ago.

Every government like inflation. The profit from it either printing money, or tax you on inflated asset value.

The inflation is coming, and wedges will blow off. The dreadful hyperinflation will make every happy or unhappy.