Thank christ the FTSE finished on a high!, page-5

Pokerboy, I think the banks NAB and CBA are thinking very hard at the moment at taking over AMP.

The Aussie arm is in excellent shape (both well capitalised and profitable) and the Henderson division is excellent. The recent problem with Pearl is only with Capital but profitability will also take a small hit (no more than 10% though).

NAB have already made an offer in the past at over $20 and they know exactly what AMP has got (AMP said its worth is closer to $30). This short term weakness could present an opportunity for NAB or CBA to get the AMP for $15-$16. It would make excellent long term sense for the banks. Whether they have the guts to do it in this investment climate is another matter. Also, the banks have alot of excess capital and a share offer would be likely.

Anyhow, Im confident in AMP long term but will sell my shares over $13 (just for the trade). It could get hit again this week if there is panic selling in the financial stocks... we saw signs of this emerging last weeks with the banks.

Analysts think the recent developments have been incorporated into the share price and then some. Valuations have been cut to the 14-16 range with some as low as 12. Most have hold receommendations at the moment and say to await further disclosures about profitability sensitivities from AMP. Some also say there is no reason to be brave in this environment.

Anyway, I hope some of this makes sense.

Cheers,
Munch.

PS. Also reports that AMP are looking very close into
selling Pearl... This would have a large one off hit to profit (on business Sunday this morning).