LYC 0.34% $5.93 lynas rare earths limited

thank you for a great call this morning nc

  1. 1,176 Posts.

    I was on this morning's investor call and wish to offer Mr. Curtis my most sincere appreciation. It is indeed a rare honor to speak with a CEO and hear from him eight times a year (twice a quarter). NC has always put real time into these calls and I value the effort a great deal. I am and was a Crown Keeper and do not praise NC naive to the history. But detractors owe him respect too. He is complex, but a great talent IMO.

    NC started these calls in Lynas' hardest times when the China Nonferrous Metal Mining issue was taking place. He has never ducked a tough question and he is the smartest man in the rare earth industry IMO. The calls are always detailed and insightful. This morning's call tracked the Quarterly Report as you would expect. But Curtis said he expects to reach 40% concentrate and clearly felt the success of the concentrator recovery rates was a cornerstone to the business model. I think the concentrator numbers are a big story developing.

    His confidence regarding the concentrator is obvious and genuine and he was particularly pleased with the Mt. Weld drill results. He even called some of the new results perhaps best in the world and reiterated his long standing claim that Mt. Weld is the richest rare earth deposit in the world.

    I asked in the Q & A whether the good recovery numbers would increase production capacity. He said it would depend on the recoveries at the LAMP but was hopeful IMO. The big issue here seems to be the results are confirming the science and I sense Lynas is confident they have been conservative in their estimates. They have not raised estimates, but the thought seems very possible to me.

    Curtis also seemed very optimistic about future rare earth prices. Earlier in the year (in the May presentation) and in an article on China prices, Curtis seemed less sure of Cerium prices going forward (in 2015). In the call the optimism on prices was across the board.

    In response to my second question Curtis said about 70% of production capacity for Phase one and two was in long term contracts and that he was not shooting for 100% capacity sold. It seems he wants some at market sales and he wants to avoid bottlenecks to suppliers. But the big issue to NC is providing reliable product long term to the new technology supply chains of our customers. NC realizes there are future demand sources for rare earths that will occur if Lynas can supply the product. It appears "if we dig and process it they will come". :-)

    Finally Kangankunde was discussed in much more detail then in the past. The science seems to be going well. Curtis also liked the Kangankunde drill results and suggested the resource size will likely increase, and possibly double.

    Most of all I liked Curtis' tone this morning. This guy knows this long term dream is about to happen and he seems very respectful of the Lynas greatness at this stage. Overall, it was a great call and once again I thank Mr. Curtis for his time.

    There will be another call after the close today. Do yourself a favor don't miss it friends. Good luck to all.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add LYC (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
$5.93
Change
-0.020(0.34%)
Mkt cap ! $5.542B
Open High Low Value Volume
$6.04 $6.04 $5.93 $23.75M 3.975M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
8 128544 $5.92
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$5.95 12481 2
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
LYC (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.