PEN 4.55% 11.5¢ peninsula energy limited

thank you nklex - $13 inferred a pound

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    Hartleys Limited Peninsula Minerals Ltd 29 September 2009
    Page 6 of 13

    Exploration
    Analysis of US / Canadian listed peers, Uranerz, UR-Energy, Powertech and Uranium Energy Corp,
    indicates that ISR companies trade on an average multiple of A$13 per lb of inferred resource in North
    America. Using this benchmark against Peninsula?s targeted 15mlb inferred resource by mid 2010 results in
    a valuation of $195m or 11cps, based on only the potential from the Ross and Barber sites. If the Company
    can prove up the stated exploration potential of 76mlb, this would result in a valuation close to $1b or
    ~57cps from Wyoming. This does not include potential from the Company?s assets in South Africa.
    Comparatives
    There have been two significant transactions in Wyoming, which provide some look through value and
    confirmation of cost estimates for Peninsula?s projects:
    Transactions
    ? In August 2009, Uranium One acquired the Irigiray processing plant and some (undefined)
    resources for US$35m. This indicates that the Company?s budgeted cost for its processing plant is
    realistic, or possibly conservative (PEN has budgeted US$40m).
    ? In September 2009, Bayswater Uranium Corporation acquired the Reno Creek uranium project for
    US$32m from Strathmore Resources Ltd, which has NI 43-101 compliant (JORC equivalent)
    reserves of 15mlb. This implies a transaction metric of A$2.50 per lb. An equivalent metric, using
    Peninsula?s short-term reserve target, would imply a value for Ross and Barber of $37.5m versus
    our valuation of ~$158m (pre 25% discount for risk). In our opinion, there does not appear to be
    anything wrong with the asset and it looks like a great deal for Bayswater. Strathmore has a large
    asset portfolio, with a preference in the near term for shallow open pit mining, so we view this as a
    divestiture to realise value from a non-core asset in order to progress its other projects.....

    -----------------------------------------------------------
    On the basis that our leases are in the United States, who also happen to be the current largest consumer of U in the world,i firmly believe that a North American listing must occur within a reasonable timeframe of achieving initial JORC in late April 2010.

    If they trade at an average of $13 a pound Aussie and we can JORC up 30 million pounds (inferred) by the end of the year that puts a theoretical valuation on the company of $390 million, not including the undoubted further upside at Lance and nothing for Karoo.

    Given the sheer volume of historical drilling and the number of holes that can already be included for JORC purposes at Lance and a notional value of $13 million dollars per 1 million pounds or $130 million per 10 million pounds, i would love to know PEN's estimated cost of achieving an inferred JORC of 40 to 50 million pounds at Lance.

















 
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