thanks jon nadler ..., page-5

I think it was ABARE not Nadler that quoted those figures

The other item of interest to those who make gold prices current and future- their topmost object of obsession, comes from a source we quoted just yesterday: ABARE (no, not an Aussie womens swimwear manufacturer) the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics. The institution forecast a 10 percent raise in Aussie gold output for the coming year and envisions Australias gold production to give China (the current numero uno in the global gold production race) a run for its yuan. The Bureau now projects gold prices to still rise in the current year, but plateau and taper off as we move forward in time. The reports highlights follow:
ABARE sees gold production and prices rising this year into 2011, before a price tumble to under $US900 an ounce in 2012. Looking at global gold production, ABARE said it saw 2009 up 6% to 2553 tonnes, the highest level for six years (matching the most recent findings of the World Gold Council).

Australian annual gold mine production is projected to be between 266 tonnes and 276 tonnes until the end of the outlook period in 2015.

The biggest influence on gold prices will be the huge deficits and debts in major economies like the US and Europe, and the growth path of the global economy in the next couple of years.

ABARE says Australian production may rise 11% in the June 30 financial year, 10% in the 2011 financial year and a further 2% in 2012. ABARE said it could see a further rise in Australian output in the period from 2013 onwards.

In 2010 the gold price is forecast to rise by 11% to average $US1080 an ounce, ABARE forecast. "Uncertainty surrounding the pace of global economic recovery is expected to sustain the investment appeal of gold and continued weakness in the US dollar in the short term is expected to increase gold demand.

"Also influencing gold demand in 2010 is the continuation of expansionary monetary and fiscal policy in the United States, which is likely to place downward pressure on the global demand for US Treasury bonds in favour of other low-risk assets such as gold.

"In 2011, the gold price is forecast to fall by 11 per cent to US$960 an ounce. "The assumption of an ongoing recovery in world economic growth is forecast to lead to a reduction in speculative investment demand for gold. "Similarly, as the appetite for higher risk assets such as shares and property increases, investment demand for retail gold, such as gold bars and coins, is forecast to moderate.

"As world economic growth returns to levels which are more consistent with its longer term potential, further falls in investment demand in 2012 are projected to lead to an 11 per cent fall in the price, in real terms, to around US$840 an ounce.

"Between 2013 and 2015, the real gold price is projected to increase moderately, rising from US$834 an ounce in 2013 to US$880 an ounce in 2015."