Denial,
I understand, that Phillip Capital broker report I attached has HCC at USD 185 however it does have AUD 0.86 for 2016, effectively valuing HCC at AUD 215 in 2016. It seems your concern is not so much the price of coal however the current lack of correlation between the AUD and material prices.
Based on historical information I believe that price assumptions are reasonable given that if the material prices are low (especially iron or and coal) that the AUD would also be comparably low. Although we are in the position now of a comparably high AUD with (recent) comparable low iron ore / coal prices, I am comfortable to rely that this correlation will return by 2016. Therefore to me the HCC price of AUD 215 seems like a reasonably conservative estimate.
Assuming your predictions on low HCC / high AUD predictions are correct and GW is delayed – for a company that has a market cap of $50M it still provides significant value for any investor willing to wait for a return to higher HCC prices. That value combined with the hopeful revenues that Bluff provides should still justify a higher enterprise value than the current $35M. Let’s see over the next 12 weeks what the results are with Bluff, to me if the results are reasonably positive I expect (hope) for the share price to double current levels.
In any case we could certainly use an increase in coal sentiment.
I am the Iceman!
Denial,I understand, that Phillip Capital broker report I...
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?