SMP

0.00%

$1.15 smartpay holdings limited

The 2020 Crash, page-13

First 13 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
mark79bond

1,339 Posts.

273

16/03/20

22:54

Post #: 43527878
Share

Originally posted by mal85: ↑

Just to add a bit of depth to my reasoning for perhaps my own learning.
My assumption here is a two-stage Kelly bet. This is the appropriate model for optimising position sizing when probabilities are largely determined.
The appropiate method for assessing value when multiples etc are unknown is using long-run averages- ie, on average what would this sort of business trade at over time.
Using EXTREMELY conservative assumptions of normalised EV/EBITDA of 10x for the Australian business (growing at about 100% yoy) and normalised EV/EBITDA of 8x for the combined business growing at >30% yoy (with a known, proven profitable business model and large unaddressed market, with first-mover/superior model in a market with favourable tailwinds) I get:

Probability of divestment going through: 80% (IMO >90% if you use historical rates + the precedent of Ingenico/paymark)
If divestment goes through short term (ie 2 week) upside of 15%
If divestment fails, short-term (2 week) downside of 12%.

Using a half-Kelly in that situation suggests a 35% portfolio allocation (I am at 32% having bought steadily from cash holdings as this has dropped a lot more than APT and XRO).
A full Kelly suggests a whopping 70% portfolio allocation.
The CRAZY thing is, the downside is not 0 if it doesn't fall in your favour. IMO there is >95% certainty that the shareprice will be materially higher with a 2 year investment horizon (I don't think we will ever see a great depression again, due to the lessons learnt (proven, by way of monetary policy in the GFC)).

Anyway, as I said earlier this pricing makes absolutely no sense. Could get unlucky here, but the decision is still a good one.

Expand

@mal85,

Just in my opinion but,

RUBBISH, RUBBISH, RUBBISH, RUBBISH RUBBISH.

It has become obvious that the GLOBAL economy has been impacted MAJORLY.

FORGET YOUR numbers & FORGET YOUR REASON AS IT NO LONGER APPLIES IMO.

As I said in my post, this will get to 30c soon
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/42814120/single

P.S. That statement was made 5 weeks ago.

DYOR!!!!

SMP Price at posting: 33.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Bitcoin: Current State of Play & Where to Next | Swyftx

SVL

Court of Appeal upholds environmental group's challenge to Silver Mines Ltd's Bowden project

M2R

EIS co-funded campaign sees Miramar kick off maiden drilling at Bangemall, Gascoyne WA

WNX

Wellnex sees first special access scheme prescriptions for new Wellness Life brand

ARD

Argent begins search for VMS mineralisation at Kempfield Cu-Pb-Zn-Au-Ag play in NSW

VTM

Victory Metals dips -8% even as company set to grow heavy REE resource at North Stanmore

Week 33 Wrap: US recession fears forgotten; RBNZ’s surprise rate cut; more iron ore trouble

IMD

IMDEX to receive $10M in out-of-court settlement with Boart Longyear over downhole tool patent

Emerald & Azure score Digger & Dealer awards

EQR

EQ Resources transitions historic Mt Carbine tungsten mine to owner-operator system

There are more pages in this discussion • 8 more messages in this thread...

First 13 Last

Add SMP (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $1.15		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $278.4M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.13	$1.16	$1.13	$115.3K	100.4K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	4017	$1.12

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.15	14732	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	8456	1.110
2	3450	1.085
2	5968	1.080
1	9688	1.065
1	8673	1.060

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.150	14732	1
1.160	7500	1
1.170	2213	2
1.180	8800	2
1.200	6000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 16/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

SMP (ASX) Chart

The 2020 Crash, page-13

Bitcoin: Current State of Play & Where to Next | Swyftx

Court of Appeal upholds environmental group's challenge to Silver Mines Ltd's Bowden project

EIS co-funded campaign sees Miramar kick off maiden drilling at Bangemall, Gascoyne WA

Wellnex sees first special access scheme prescriptions for new Wellness Life brand

Argent begins search for VMS mineralisation at Kempfield Cu-Pb-Zn-Au-Ag play in NSW

Victory Metals dips -8% even as company set to grow heavy REE resource at North Stanmore

Week 33 Wrap: US recession fears forgotten; RBNZ’s surprise rate cut; more iron ore trouble

IMDEX to receive $10M in out-of-court settlement with Boart Longyear over downhole tool patent

Emerald & Azure score Digger & Dealer awards

EQ Resources transitions historic Mt Carbine tungsten mine to owner-operator system

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

The 2020 Crash, page-13

Top Stories

Bitcoin: Current State of Play & Where to Next | Swyftx

Court of Appeal upholds environmental group's challenge to Silver Mines Ltd's Bowden project

EIS co-funded campaign sees Miramar kick off maiden drilling at Bangemall, Gascoyne WA

Wellnex sees first special access scheme prescriptions for new Wellness Life brand

Argent begins search for VMS mineralisation at Kempfield Cu-Pb-Zn-Au-Ag play in NSW

Victory Metals dips -8% even as company set to grow heavy REE resource at North Stanmore

Week 33 Wrap: US recession fears forgotten; RBNZ’s surprise rate cut; more iron ore trouble

IMDEX to receive $10M in out-of-court settlement with Boart Longyear over downhole tool patent

Emerald & Azure score Digger & Dealer awards

EQ Resources transitions historic Mt Carbine tungsten mine to owner-operator system

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News