Great post! This has made me rethink the 500k ounce comment. I'd completely discounted natural growth as we were so far away from that rate.
Put 150k run rate down for Coolgardie. Assume we get 100% control at Laverton, the figures in the quarterly show that anything between 25,000 and 35,000 per quarter can be put through Granny Smith. That's 100-120k ounces. That's 250-270k ounces form current operations with full control.
Apollo pit is coming online in a big way with that 15 million development spend. My understanding is that ore could be put through Barnicoat which is 1.5 mtpa. At 2g/t that gives the best part of 100,000. Rolling total is 350-370k.
130-150k ounces short...hmmm....3MH has capacity to expand to 1.8mtpa with some modifications by my understanding. using the simply maths that would mean an extra 75k ounces, giving us a total of 425-445k ounces.
Increase your grades by ten percent, keeping in mind that the Laverton calcs are done on around 2 g/t grades, and you have your 500k. Coolgardie might be a bit hard to increase, but looking at the grades at Burtville I'd say that deposit along with Fish and Apollo could take the slack comfortably.
Obviously this relies on Barnicoat coming online, GS contract staying in place, 3MH being expanded and full ownership of crescent. A lot of variables, but none of which are pie in the sky. Country Writer, do you have any estimates for what it would cost for expansion to 1.8 at 3MH and also the cost for getting Barnicoat operational; I think it just needed a new crushing circuit?
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