The 3RD element.

The moderator was correct.

Even before the moderator stepped in I was thinking of making this post. The 3 elements;

The first element is Aqua...who, as we know, is heavily invested it this stock and obviously wants the best outcome. In doing so he compiled copious amounts of his own research in collaboration with some of his acquaintances. The research is his view of the POSSIBLE outcomes of FAR, which he has graciously shared with us all here on HC.... It needs to be remembered, though, these views are his interpretations and are not to be confused with PROBABLE and PROVEN outcomes which are continually being disclosed by the JV and FAR. Obviously for most other shareholders we like to see a glimpse of a possible future of our investment so the posts are usually welcomed.

The second element is PJ...Who also holds FAR shares. PJ works spreadsheets and looks at announced information for data to create up to date and potential share-prices. His work has been seen by most shareholders as close to the money and current. His work delves into possibilities as well but generally those inputs are based on potential factual events such as oil prices and JV/FAR announced probabilities. His work is usually welcomed as being grounded in current events.

Which brings me to the third element and one I fear could be being totally disregarded by punters looking at FAR as something that is on a road to guaranteed success. Potential investors reading the FAR forum could be excused for thinking that making money on FAR is as simple as buying the shares and waiting on a guaranteed outcome somewhere between PJ and Aqua's compilations. With maybe the worst outcome being around PJ's projections. This could end badly for them if they invest above their means because the 3rd element is failure and that can come in a variety of forms from drilling disasters through to terrorist attacks in Dakar.....be prepared to expect the unexpected when investing!

Also there are still financing obstacles to overcome, the least of which is raising enough cash to stay in the game if we are to be involved with the three contingency wells. A necessity, in my view, because we need to look inside more prospects if we are to put more meat on the bargaining table. IF, at the end of that stage, we are not taken out as a company or have had our share of the oil bought from us then we face the cost of commercializing the find. A burden which appears to be insurmountable for such a small player as FAR.

It must be said that FAR with its proven and capable management and JV partners are doing a very good job. They have taken what was POSSIBLE oil and turned it into two discoveries with very decent PROBABLE quantities and are in the process of PROVING the fields as well as drilling into more possible reservoirs. Those possible reservoirs have been significantly de-risked by the work the JV have done to date. As the results of the drilling and the recent 3D seismic are processed we expect, because we have been advised, that there will be upgrades to the resource.The management team has been boosted of late with the arrival of Reg Nelson and Gordon Ramsay, two VERY well respected players in the O&G industry.

So if the luck, good management and excellent rig work continues the outcome for FAR shareholders looks very PROMISING.......but remember, not GUARANTEED.

GLTA.