China has every intention of doing everything possible to increase the strength of their REE monopoly. Without question, correct?
Whatever the CCP does will be consistent with that, with the exception of efforts to prove otherwise with deceptive intent.
China has massive stockpiles of REEs. Quite possibly more than a year's worth. Logic. They will try to deceive and play close to the vest, but they have the stockpiles. Unquestionably. They will control price indefinitely or until ROW (more precisely XXROW) forces the issue. How many years until then? 5? 10?15?
Japan has taken "priority access" control of Mt Weld, of anything coming from KAL build and anything coming from Blue Line JV.
Is there any reason for LYC shareholders to be excited to be what is essentially a Japanese stock? What is the reason?
Only one country is prepared to accelerate EV NdPr demand by virtue having established all supporting supply chains for EV batteries and even IGBTs (2nd-most valuable EV component). China.
To get Chinese demand growth aligned with Lynas supply potential is the key to improving LYC SP. WITHOUT alienating efforts XXROW as they seek to extricate themselves from the hole they dug.
Japan wants to build EVs in China for China and the world. China makes money, lands how to make much more. Japan gets access to raw materials. China wouldn't let Japan have their DOMESTOC REEs but v would certainly be willing to make billions from millions taking mt weld rees and making magnets for testing motors with Byd toyota or BTETs name on them. They simply do not want to be using domestic REEs to build products for foreigners. Foreigners who want access to Chinese magmetmakers should expect to be met with a demand for the necessary REEs along with payment for processing them.
With Honda-CATL and my beloved Byd Toyota aka BTET as well as a number of other recent JVs, it appears to me that Lynas just got a lot closer to the Chinese market potential.
I'm good with that. That was a buy signal for me just as the initial Japanese support was.
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