the age , page-9

In the minority obviously, but I am of the opinion that it would not be unacheivable that the share price will be back above $4 before the end of the year.

The first proviso being the re-instatment of a dividend, which will return the stock to being a dividend/growth play.

This is of course premised on two events.

The first being that money is recieved to rollover the debt. Now theres lots of talk about sub-prime, but realistically at interest rates even close to 8 or 9% (remember the majority of the debt is US and rates there are falling) there is demonstrably sufficient cashflow to cover interest.

The second of the conditions is that the likelihood of massive assets sales is eliminated. Sure there will be sales at the fringes to repay some unit holders, but its truly about a crisis of confidence.

As confidence is regained (as a consequence of rolling over debt) then it is less likely there will be a clamour to sell units in the managed schemes and therefore properties.

So, if I was to just focus on the macro-economics of it all, there is a potential for an increase in interest expenditure, there is a potential for a decrease in income from properties, and there will be (would have been a reduction in the dividend.

I think and beleive that is what the market was reacting to when it traded the stock down from $10 to $6 in the past 6 monhs.

Therefore, the stock should have been approaching a cyclical low. If I discount that further (ie introduce more reward for risk) I am comfortable in predicting $4 and a dividend to boot.


but... wait and see what the vultures have to say.