the anatomy of a downramp, page-43

1. As mentioned before many governments are still committed to increasing biofuel production because there is more pushing it then just the current oil price. Biofuel production will continue to increase over time.

2. Mosaic has excess inventories. Their quarterly earnings rose from $394mill to $958mill quarter to quarter. Naturally with seasonal weaker demand they have reduced production. There is no doubt a weakening of demand and it may not pick up to the past levels but let's face it Mosaic are raking it in and Potash has remained very strong (a larger resource that coincidentally MAK also has)

3. Well this was known ages ago when China re-allowed exports. This does not mean the situation will remain that way in the future. China did not ban exports for no reason.

4. Phosphate has many applications not just DAP. Many pundits (experts?) believe DAP will settle around the $600 mark but most concede that the price could be very volatile over the next couple of years until extra productive mines come on board.

Remember one thing, due to high prices of food goods eg grain, corn etc many stocked up on phopshate fertilisers and this stock is being depleted thus the current weakness. The demand will pick up again although in the current climate I do not expect the prices to reach the heights they did before. But thats the beauty they dont need to for MAK to make good profits.

Nevertheless I believe this uncertainty is one of the main reasons why MAK share price is not alot higher right now.