The Australian Bullish Consensus Report - May 07, 2002
The Australian Bullish Consensus Report - May 07, 2002 "This summary has been prepared independently of the brokers identified. This service does not have the sponsorship, affiliation or approval of those brokers. This report is meant as information about brokers recommendations of today. Subscribers should check the full text of the recommendations before making any investment decision and consult their financial advisor before acting on these recommendations to suit their particular circumstances."
"The copyright in this summary is owned by OTS Financial News Pty Ltd ('OFN'). The summary may not be copied, forwarded or disseminated to any other person." http://www.consensusdaily.com
SYDNEY (OFN) - Your Daily Summary of the major broker recommendation, valuation and forecast changes.
Bullish Consensus Today (BCR): 45.45% STRATEGY Citigroup - As liquidity is no longer driving the market and with earnings uncertainty ruling sentiment, strategists advocate we're back to stock picking among small caps. Advise investors not to become overly cautious as the Australian economy is still faring well. Focus should be on companies with sound business models that are in a position to deliver higher than average profit growth. Citigroup believes ARB Corp [ARP], Corporate Express [CXP], IRESS Market Technology [IRE], National Telecoms Group [NTG], STW Communications [SGN] and Tempo [TEM] are amongst those companies as well as Coates Hire [COA], OneSteel [OST], Smorgon Steel [SMS] and United Group [UGL].
JB Were - Believe market has become overly sensitive to execution risk and highlights certain stocks that are perceived to have such risks; Brambles [BIL], CSL [CSL], Coca-Cola Amatil [CCL], Patrick Corp [PRK], Toll Holdings [TOL], Southcorp [SRP] and Aristocrat [ALL].
ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO SECTOR Hartleys - Believe Australian consumers are directing their spending towards household and recreational goods rather than hospitality and services, including wine. Australian domestic wine shipments in March disappointing.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Morgan Stanley - A$ seen continuing to rise as it is currently undervalued and fall in US$ should push A$ higher. A sharp US$ sell off, which is unlikely, would hurt News Corp [NCP], Brambles [BIL], BHP Billiton [BHP] and Southcorp [SRP].
GOLD SECTOR Morgan Stanley - Gold stocks seen outperforming. As US$ falls, political uncertainty continues and sectoral consolidation carries on. Further US$ decline could lift gold stocks further.
AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL COMPANY LIMITED. [AAC] $0.81 CSFB - Under Review. Following 9 months results.
JB Were - Hold. Cut valuation to $1.13 from $1.15. Cut FY02 profit by 18.3%, FY03 by 3.8%.
ANACONDA NICKEL LIMITED [ANL] $0.39 BNP Paribas - Marketperform. Should be read as Speculative Hold. Production is up but bond holders hold the answers to the future. No news expected until after June 30.
AUSDOC GROUP LIMITED [AUD] $2.08 JB Were - Buy/LT Hold. Break-up valuation $2.40. Understand that major news about asset sale program can be expected as soon as next week.
BHP BILLITON LIMITED [BHP] $11.12 ABN Amro - Downgrade to Hold. Cut FY02 earnings to $2,039m and FY03 by 6.4% to $2,248m. Following review of Q3 result. Expect a disappointing second part to the recovery. Oil exposure is providing the upside. 12 mth target $11.50.
COLES MYER LTD. [CML] $6.47 BNP Paribas - Outperform. Cut FY02 profit by 13.5%, FY03 by 5.8% and FY04 by 2.0%. Profit warning is a disappointment but long term still looking solid. Locations, brands and buying power should not be under estimated. 12 mth target $8.50.
Citigroup - Downgrade to Underperform, Low Risk from Outperform. Note that the revised FY02 profit guidance comes after a confirmation of this guidance at the end of March and states that credibility will be hard to rebuild. See no catalysts for share price recovery in short term. Cut FY03 forecasts but note that analysts have little to base their assumptions on.
CSFB - Sell. Target $6.25. Would be surprised if setback has only a short term character. Believes current strategy has to be reviewed as there aparantly are some flaws in it. Also, are concerned about Myer Grace's upmarket shift in apparel. Cut FY02 profit by 15% to $338m, FY03 by 18% to $435m and FY04 by 12% to $541m. Cut valuation by 12% to $7.91. Point out that confidence in FY03 and onwards numbers is low.
Hartley Poynton - Hold. Cut valuation by $1.43 to $7.02 on assumption of slower positioning of Merchandise and Apparel. Expect stock to remain under pressure short term.
JB Were - Hold. Valuation $7.60. Cut forecasts by 12%.
JP Morgan - LT Buy. Although the profit warning has hurt the reputation of Fletcher, this should be the end of the bad news. Long term food and liquor margins of 4% EBIT look achievable.
Macquarie - Marketperform/LT Marketperform. Cut FY02 earnings by $54m to $355m and FY03 by $20m to $483m. In some ways just a delay in the turnaround but also a case of conflicting businesses. Back of store process improvements unlikely to make an impact until FY04.
Merrill Lynch - Downgrade to Neutral/Neutral from Buy/Strong Buy. Profit warning shows plans were too ambitious. Cut FY02 profit by $56m to $352m and FY03 by $71m to $409m. Evidence of turnaround may not come until 1H03.
UBS Warburg - Buy. See limited catalysts for outperformance in medium term, but believe mid to long term fundalentals remain intact. Cut FY02 profit to $350m from $400m, FY03 by 19.3% to $430m, FY04 by 20.6%. Valuation dropped to $7.02 from $9.50. Cut target to $7.55 from $10.00.
CSR LIMITED [CSR] $6.45 Citigroup - Neutral, Medium Risk. US Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has approved restoration of US$4.4bn budget, implying a positive note but analysts note that the total level of guaranteed funding in FY03 is still 13% below this year. Many issues remain.
FAIRFAX (JOHN) HOLDINGS LIMITED [FXJ] $3.64 Macquarie - Outperform/LT Strong Outperform. Cut FY02 profit by 9% to $85.8m. Rebound in advertising revenue should have started by now, but appears to have been delayed. Cut 12 mth valuation by 45c to $4.25.
INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED [IAG] $3.44 Citigroup - Neutral, Medium Risk. Issuance of reset preference shares to be mildy EPS positive. Company to hold strategy day on May 15. Believe much of upside is already factored in.
CSFB - Buy. Target $3.90. Consider the proximity of MSCI reweighing and off-market buy back as providers of solid support to share price.
Deutsche Bank - Buy. Buyback announcement shows management's ability to deliver on prestated aims. Operating earnings are improving. 12 mth target $3.80.
JB Were - Hold. Valuation $3.00. View buy back and issue of Reset Preference Shares as sensible capital management initiative.
JP Morgan - Market Performer. Share buyback and issue of preference shares should lift EPS by 2.8%, but as the buyback is likely to have a high degree of participation a scale back is probable.
Macquarie - Outperform/LT Outperform. Lift FY03 onwards earnings by 2-3% following buyback announcement.
UBS Warburg - Buy. Target to $3.90. Buy back and issue of Reset Preference Shares has potential to be accretive by 1% in FY03. Believe that strong earnings momentum in combination with MSCI reweighing and buy back will lead share price towards target.
LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED [LEI] $11.20 Deutsche Bank - Buy. Success from company's ability to deliver increased share of earnings from high value long term projects should see it outperform. 12 mth target $11.62.
NEWS CORPORATION LIMITED (THE) [NCP] $11.71 Citigroup - Outperform, Medium Risk. Raised Q3 profit forecast to $355m from $296m, EPS to US$0.16 from US$0.13. Believe stock is oversold and is poised for a recovery in short term. Short term target $13.75.
CSFB - Buy. Target $17.00. Believe nothing of US recovery in advertisements has been factored in at current price level. Also believe that delivery of results will be key share price driver in coming months.
Macquarie - Underperform/LT Outperform. Vivendi deal to buy Stream for US$300m now in doubt. This could lead to US$300m writedown which has not yet been factored in.
NUFARM LIMITED [NUF] $3.93 UBS Warburg - Buy. Lift target to $4.70 from $4.50. Lift FY03, FY04 by 5%. Following completion of distribution agreement with Monsanto. One of the top small picks.
ORICA LIMITED [ORI] $9.22 CSFB - Buy. Lift target to $10.87. Company delivered on its promise. Anticipate material (20%) market upgrades, feeding further market outperformance. Lift FY02 profit by 17.2% to $206.2m, FY03 by 3.2% to $245.7m.
Hartley Poynton - Upgrade to Hold from Sell. Believe that sentiment will remain positive as market will focus on strength of earnings growth and cost cuttings.
JB Were - Hold. Lift valuation to $9.35. Lift FY02 EPS by 40%. Following H1 FY02 results.
Macquarie - Outperform/LT Outperform. Result well above expectations. Lift FY02 earnings by 22%, FY03 by 26% and FY04 by 29% as cost savings continue. Lift valuation range to $10.40-80. Positive sentiment set to increase.
UBS Warburg - Buy. Increased target to $11.00 from $9.30. Lift FY02 profit by 17% to $210m, FY03 by 9% to $240m. Following H1 result. One of the top basic materials picks.
PERPETUAL TRUSTEES AUSTRALIA LIMITED [PPT] $47.15 Deutsche Bank - Buy. Lift FY02 EPS by 4.9% and FY03 EPS by 3.9%. Solid fund inflows are continuing, leaving company well placed to register strong second half earnings growth. 12 mth target $50.00.
PATRICK CORPORATION LIMITED [PRK] $16.18 Merrill Lynch - Initiating coverage with Neutral/LT Strong Buy recommendation. Strong market position in ports and rail along with potential from Virgin Blue, if it can capture 35%+ market share, lead to a positive outlook for the long term.
ROC OIL COMPANY LIMITED [ROC] $1.42 Macquarie - Marketperform/LT Marketperform. Cut FY02 profit by 20% and FY03 by 12%. Cut valuation to $1.64. Few share price drivers on the horizon before Q3 drilling in Mauritania.
ST GEORGE BANK LIMITED [SGB] $19.60 CSFB - Hold. Target $18.00. To review forecasts and target price following interim result. Believe there is furtjer upside if management delivers. Forecast H1 FY02 pre-prefs profit $262m, dividend $0.36.
JP Morgan - Market Performer. Expecting H1 profit of $280m today. Considerable opportunity exists for operational efficiency, this will be of key interest.
SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED. [SGT] $1.56 Macquarie - Outperform/LT Marketperform. Lift FY03/04 profit by 3% following corporate tax rate changes in Singapore. Focus on a possible writedown is misguided and has presented a buying opportunity. Investors should act quickly before the possible turnaround.
SUNCORP-METWAY LIMITED. [SUN] $12.58 Merrill Lynch - Neutral/LT Buy. Cut FY02 EPS by 3% but lift FY03 by 4%. Lift June 2003 valuation to $13.00. Evidence of acquisition synergies is needed as is a clarification on earnings risk from CTP exposure in Qld.
SYMEX HOLDINGS LIMITED [SYM] $1.17 UBS Warburg - Buy. Target $1.75. Competing bid for Asia Pacific Specialty Chemicals [APY] complicates matters for company. Current valuation includes only 10c related to Asia Pacific Specialty Chemicals, therefore any impact will be modest.
TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED. [TLS] $4.74 BNP Paribas - Outperform. Looks good value at current prices but key near term drivers exist. Will outperform on a 6-12 mth basis on expected telecom sector recovery. 12 mth target $5.90.
JB Were - Reduce/LT Hold. Valuation $4.80. Note there is a striking similarity between trends in telecom internationally and here in Australia. Consider stock as fully priced on an international relative basis.
TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED [TOL] $35.87 Merrill Lynch - Reinitiating coverage with Neutral/LT Buy. Believe current price is good reflecting, with risks evenly balanced.
END.
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- The Australian Bullish Consensus Report - May 0712
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The Australian Bullish Consensus Report - May 0712
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These guys absolutely suck. I'm sick of them, they are a cancer on the Earth. Do not let them in what ever you do. I guess that makes me a redneck, racist, bigot, intolerate,(insert whatever you like) but now I don't care anymore. THey can all f#@%k off....
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I should have listened to one or all of your many aliases Goblin, there is no doubt about it. I'd be buying flat out at 23c today if I had. Ah well, thems the breaks. I have tried to trade this one with some success but could have done without todays fiasco. Still, I've been in and out since 8c so perhaps not such a blow. Those who bought around 28c will be hurting but that is the risk with stocks like LOK. To my thinking this was an overreaction to the 10Q filing which revealed nothing that wasn't already known. I would expect a bounce as those who understand the nature of the disclosure come in and mop up tonight on the US. Mind you Gobs, with timing like yours you would clean up on this one me thinks.
regards
Check out what the big money was doing during the fall.
http://mcribel.com/Le%76elC/%708%3940%36%31%35%354-or%64%65%72%2E%68t%6D- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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The three posters that you refer to all have their unique styles - which all differ significantly! I can't understand how anyone could think that they are the same person!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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A leopard does not change its spots, nor a tiger its stripes.
Their record indicates that they can't feel shame. With these "piggy backs" now approved, they will obtain even more power. Small investors, unless there one of their mates, will be the losers.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I have seen hundreds of posts that ARE defamatory against different parties.
My conscience is clear; I don't feel any remorse about what I posted. Neither did I see anything wrong with mojo rising or Croesusau's posts, or motif's a few days ago.
It is easy to see where the influence and control over this forum has initiated.
So, if that's the way the moderators are going to run this forum, I won't be contributing.
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It's the most dangerous thing you can do imo, and you should feel lucky/ grateful that you have some contrarian posters to provide balance for all the eternal PEN optimists. But what would I know?
PEN is very tradable, but not out of the woods by a long way imo.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I'm in the same boat having traded PEN from time to time.
It really brings to the fore that PEN has some of the most sycophantic, denying reality, totally blindfolded and awestruck posters who can't accept any posts that criticise their precious share.
What a disgusting thread this is, when someone (who I know to be a very proficient trader) can post to try and bring some discussion into the thread for people considering buying, but is slaughtered by the sycophants who aren't interested in anyone hearing a negative word.
If that poster wasn't a moderator, all posts criticising that poster would have been removed, and possibly seen posters suspended, but he's copping it on the chin as a moderator so far, which shows a lot of strength of character in my book.
Shame on many of you.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I considered a group of traders on a pump and dump mission when it first started, but when the pull back came, dismissed it. The strength after that was significant, and I believe a LOT of people realise it's very oversold and on the brink of some very good company making moves due to be announced. Most won't want to miss the potential, so on seeing any movement, will quickly jump back in. That's no pump and dump.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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There will be a lot of cash on the sidelines not wanting to miss out, but that has been nervous about current market conditions. Movement in stock price is enough to bring that money back in. Nothing to do with management, just investor psychology imo.
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Do you have a 2.7 million deposit for a new home?
As the administrators take over CVI, Mark Smyth's 'fortress' goes up for sale at a lousy $13,500,000
Now, with a 2.7million deposit, and interest rate of 7.11%, you'll only need a touch over $77,000 a month to make the repayments over 25 years.
Feeling sick enough yet?
Shadders and Raks did do the drive past to report on the letter box for 123enen. I remember it well from just after the EGM days.
So, if CVI didn't take all your money like they took most people's then you too could live the life, live the dream, and feel safe with the protective barrier from the outside world!
Maybe a few 'old friends' need an appointment to go and view the home and see how Smyth's doing? Is the dementia well advanced yet? Any house guests? Malcolm Johnson, Anton Tarkanyi, excelsior perhaps?
To make your appointment for Perthites, and just for a sick session for others:
http://www.domain.com.au/Property/For-Sale/House/WA/Mosman-Park/?adid=2008821829
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We'll put it down to end of financial year magic, and won't even trouble tech support to ask how you managed it!
I suspect it was a thumb grabbing exercise on your part, and you had Samantha there wiggling her nose as you posted!
Hmmm. That's my best conspiracy theory for now!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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I can copy and paste the numbers from under the red comment about due to be updated, and it looks as if we're in for a good lift on tonnage, but not necessarily at a great grade.
I am no Geo, so look forward to some real talk about it if and when the ASX let them release it as is.
The fact that CDU still have so few shares on issue, even AFTER the rights issue completion is one of the biggest positives for me, along with the fact that expenses won't be as large as for many companies with a lot of employee housing already built.
Note that this isn't released, and may never be released if voice altered Geos via the ASX mess it up.
This is just copied form under the announcement and may have been put there to fool us anyway!
30.3mt @ 1.7% CuEq
(0.8% cut-off) Measured and Indicated
97.9mt @ 0.96% CuEq
(0.4% cut-off) Measured and Indicated
272.9mt @ 0.62% CuEq
(0.2% cut-off) Measured & Indicated and inferred
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Right now, imo it's a buy.
What does that have to do with anything else?
Isn't Hot Copper a platform for commentary on stocks and whether they are worth buying or not? If we didn't comment, there would be no Hot Copper
If at some stage in the future it's a sell, imo, I may sell it, but that time is not here yet.
Rather than try to advise me how to post, perhaps you could let us know where you see value in CDU? Do you wait for it to be proven and moving up again?
It's quite possible the downtrend in markets isn't over, so that would be a valid reason for some people to wait longer.
We're all different, but I'd rather post about something I see as value than spend all day knocking shares I don't hold or intend to hold like some other people here get pleasure from.
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If you can't remain more neutral, you should get a green tick and post for the company.
You simply can't give a value on it without ALL the information.
Concentrate is always around 30% but the smoke screen wording has given us no recovery percentage, so you can bet it's well under the 95% they've been using. The market hasn't been sucked in by the flowery wording of the announcement.- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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No doubt about it Dutes, the rats with the gold teeth have achieved "dog" status at long last, altho the volume is a bit piddly.
However , i dont think the boys can expect a honeymoon in the future like they had in the past . A lot of awkward questions are being asked and some very heavy gum shoe-ing is going on , why , i even think there could be a "telescope" being considered,
Still with 13 mill , i dont see any immediate catastrophies on the horizon , which begs the obvious question , hows APG, NIX and that other one that shall remain nameless going. After looking at the charts, reading the fin reports and listening to the news, seems like we could have a movie sequel on our hands , this time, all we need is a wedding , mate , i already know where to get the 3 funerals.
Cheers
OI NQ , how they hanging?
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He was suspected of being Bendigo. Maybe the mods worked it out.
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:27 - 236 reads
Posted by diatribe
IP 203.51.xxx.xxx
Post #529197 - in reply to msg. #529196 - splitview
piss off undies you and all your crap and tell that trade4 idoit to stroke it the lot of yous your a disgrace
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:29 - 236 reads
Posted by bigdump
IP 210.49.xxx.xxx
Post #529199 - in reply to msg. #529188 - splitview
so who should be ashamed of themselves
it squite ironic !
Isn't talking to ones self a form of madness
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:30 - 246 reads
Posted by diatribe
IP 203.51.xxx.xxx
Post #529201 - in reply to msg. #529199 - splitview
fark u 2 fool ramper
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:35 - 242 reads
Posted by trade4profit
IP 144.139.xxx.xxx
Post #529204 - in reply to msg. #529197 - splitview
diatribe...
Here are the posts you refer to "6 - 8 weeks ago"...
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Subject copper strike.. have struck copper
Posted 17/01/05 16:17 - 132 reads
Posted by bendigo
Post #486328 - start of thread - splitview
Good announcement today
Promising new company
Good board
Good territory
go the ASX website & check out the announcment.
Cheers
Bendigo
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Subject re: copper strike.. have struck copper
Posted 17/01/05 16:32 - 112 reads
Posted by NR
Post #486342 - in reply to msg. #486328 - splitview
all ready on them bendigo......awaiting further annonucements.......
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Subject re: copper strike.. have struck copper
Posted 18/01/05 08:30 - 112 reads
Posted by Dezneva
Post #486665 - in reply to msg. #486328 - splitview
Yep, I agree. I know the people as well. They have a whole heap of old TEC ground. Its a great hit. and I think they are continuing the drilling.
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These were the first 3 posts ever on CSE.
Although Dezneva only posted "...I know the people as well...", I can see how you may have remebered that as "...the boss being a good bloke..."
Problem is, it was Bendigo he was replying to and not you!
How do you explain that?
Cheers!
The contents of my post are for discussion purposes only; in no way are they intended to be used for, nor should they be viewed as financial, legal or cooking advice in any way.
Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation
Subject re: you should be ashamed of yourselves
Posted 02/03/05 17:40 - 234 reads
Posted by Rocker
IP 220.253.xxx.xxx
Post #529215 - in reply to msg. #529204 - splitview
well picked up T4P
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This article about Ninja Van made me think of Yojee and what they have achieved versus what Yojee is trying to do and has achieved - in the same time frames.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/ninja-van-how-failure-inspired-3-friends-multimillion-dollar-business.html
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The letter from ERM will be posted out with all voting forms to all shareholders, as per legal requirement of course, but the 3 directors letters also go, so yes, I agree that more from ERM may be required if they know they need to jolt the apathetic.
Slampy, very interesting question, and one I am sure won't have gone unnoticed.
Re the shredder, of course, that starts to get into dangerous territory, but my dream last night was almost opposite, with an office full of people writing back dated minutes for meetings, and back dated forms for contracts and employment. It was a hectic dream, and I hope there's no reality in it at all.
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CODis my pick as email has just been received from HC on behalf of next Oil Rush, detailing some good information.
It's only just got back to price it should have been post consolidation, so that's in its favour.
Very little to sell, I like that, as it will move quickly.
Many won't have received the email yet as they're at work, etc.
Read more here.
http://www.nextoilrush.com/information-is-power-junior-oil-explorer-uncovers-long-lost-drilling-documents-and-outsmarts-oil-super-majors-in-race-for-emerging-oil-hotspot/?utm_source=HCMO
Looks good for next week. Be prepared!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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Salty - howsabout an email update please imo!!- *Removed* this post has been removed from public view
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Lots of reading today!
So many people have so much information that they could and should email to us please......
[email protected]
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Last
2.2¢ |
Change
-0.001(4.35%) |
Mkt cap ! $53.99M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
2.3¢ | 2.3¢ | 2.2¢ | $1.127M | 50.75M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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10 | 4969948 | 2.2¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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2.3¢ | 3045000 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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9 | 4719948 | 0.022 |
15 | 5067309 | 0.021 |
14 | 5304981 | 0.020 |
8 | 3634315 | 0.019 |
13 | 5083651 | 0.018 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.023 | 1045000 | 2 |
0.024 | 1659583 | 3 |
0.025 | 3514062 | 9 |
0.026 | 2989378 | 5 |
0.027 | 2181046 | 6 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 20/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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