Polls are looking pretty grim for the NSW Libs but I personally find it hard to believe that Labor will be the direct beneficiary of that disillusionment (the NSW ALP being luke-warm cr#p). I think the NSW election could end up being much more like the Federal election that the recent Victorian State elelction - where both majors do poorly on primary votes but centrist and left independents and parties give the win to Labor, whether with an outright majority or in minority. When people in the five Climate 200 targetted seats:
Jacqui Scruby (Pittwater) Joeline Hackman (Manly) Victoria Davidson (Lane Cove) Judy Hannan (Wollondilly) Helen Conway (North Shore)
see they have an alternative way of punishing the Libs without going all the way to Labor or the Greens, I think enough will grab the opportunity to make those seats very close or even fall.
The Greens may even pull off a few inner city seats from Labor.
The big difference (to me) between the NSW and Federal elections is that the Libs do have Matt Kean taking a the running on climate issues in NSW, OTOH, they have a big "women problem", a perception of religious interference in Party politics and integrity is a growing issue in NSW (when isn't it?) so that might drive votes to Teals.
I disagree about the Federal crossbench too. I think they are very well positioned to influence policy (and have done so) and to retain most of those seats next time round when they will probably hold the balance of power. This term is a rehearsal.
