Occarew, thank you again for pointing out some potentially...

Occarew, thank you again for pointing out some potentially misleading statements made. However, I think that the $13 is based on some analysis, so technically it is not misleading. Here goes how I have worked out the potential value for ELK.

It is agreed that there is some 23m barrels of oil.

Given teh current oil prices, and the fact we have pasted peak oil, the price of oil is on an uptrend. of course there will be variations ie price drops to $90 or less, but usisng a a conservative figure of US$100 is not unreasonable.

As to the costs of production, again a conservative estimate of some $50 per barrel is used. Accordingly, this gives a net profit of some $1.065 billion.

However, as a JV is involved, ELK may need to give up 50%, so ELK will only get $500m (rounded down).

Based on the number of shares of some 70m i get a value of $7 per share.

So you are right about the $13. i dont think they reflected the 50% JV element.

Again you will realise that the $7 is not discounted to reflect the PV of the cash. So using 50% gives some $3.5 per share.

However, this is very conservative as it does not reflect further price increases in oil over the life of the project.

So you spot on the some may have over inflated the value, but it depends on the paramters and assumpptions you made.

Occarew, given you total understanding of the project, can you give us and insight into your assumptions and reasons so that we can all be informed. Or if there is anyone else more informed can add the to basis of the assumptions.

PS Again this is based on Ryder Scott certifying.

But at 44c with a very conservative value of $3.50 (and based on proved technology) seems a good bet to me and all the other holders of ELK.

Also this is based on the Grieve reserves and not anything else.

Occarew, I hope the moderator finds this more palatable than those one line posts made by some.