Guys just need some clarification. If Banda is a success, as Ted says it can be tied-back with Chinquetti field as those wells are located close enough. Will Chinquetti field then still need to be commercially viable under this circumstances (ie. contains more than 100 MB) ?
In my opinion, IF and IF banda is a hit and it's tied back with Chinquetti field, the development and ongoing cost would be much cheaper than if Chinquetti is developed alone. It means more economical and give Hardman much higher value due to less cost needed.
Then any previous calculation of Chinguetti value (alone) to HDR must surely be revised up.
As Chinquetti field is almost proven to be commercially viable, the downside risk of holding HDR now is limited. If Banda is a duster, we might see a decline in price, but it won't be much as Courbine case did last time around. I think 10-15% drop in price is more reasonable.
However if it is a hit, and HDR can be sure it contains more than 200 million barrells of oil, the HDR price will surely hit at least $1.20 after the announcement and in a matter of days or weeks (i personaly think weeks as many people are locking profits at this price), the price may reach $1.50+.
My opinion says it is much better to hold HDR at this time rather than staying out until the result is announced. You will surely miss the ride. Of course there is always be risk that Banda is a duster, but the potential return indeed is much bigger than the risk. Do you guys agree with that ?
I'm not trying to "ramping-up" the stock. This is just my reality view of the current situation.
I'm holding HDR
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Guys just need some clarification. If Banda is a success, as Ted...
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