@Surfguy'You would have to think that other Fabs and Semiconductor Industry players will be carefully weighing their options and quickly deciding the threat this poses for their business.'
Spot on imo Sg - cheapest cost per bit production sure is enticing to fight off that threat imo
we know the chip sector tanked during Covid black swan - order cancellations caused foundries to refocus to integrated circuit supply driven demand as the auto sector cancelled / stopped new wafer starts on auto product - factories the globe over stopped major production operations ( as would be expected) and orders dried up on chip output - then as demand rebuilt in the sector, cycle time for restart in the foundries was slow and couldn't match the increasing demand ( fab utilisation just cannot be turned on and off at will as we have seen with those that are currently affected by the lack of fresh water supply needed for their cooling operations) ....now they are rebalancing and moving from the 'just n time' based supply / demand they used in the past to a new model that builds supply chain resiliency... 'buffer stocks' in line with the ongoing just in time model.
This means fabs are working hard to improve cycle times - throughput productivity and output capacity - this increases yields for the fab and keeps the customers supplied in product....this will be great when wbt are in the fab producing - up till now they have been running chip design with Leti, working process flow integration for the fab transfer when it occurs - developing the discrete selector etc etc... - this is important and critical to success - Covid has allowed / facilitated this to happen out of necessity and now focusing back to 300mm wafer and 28nm gate also is a strategic preeminent move imo ....why ?
auto makers and fabless IC etc dont want to get caught in this situation again where no supply is available - for that reason they are also looking hard at their supply chain resiliency - locking in fab orders now - that's why the fabs have excessive level orders and they are increasing - the model is changing slightly because of this and the customers are locking in fixed orders like never before to meet the increasing demand ....imo opinion the phone will be ringing off the hook at wbt as customers dial up wanting their orders dialed in when these guys get it in the shop ....so to speak.....why would customers be in negotiations with chip suppliers / producers the world over ...because they now want to lock in supply chain adequacy / resilience so their business are risk mitigated against similar occurrences (Covid or the like) in the future - that's what Covid has taught them imo...
In my opinion when the first commercial deal arrives for wbt it will be the first of many - the product is proven through their production partner Leti - ' lets get this to straight to market' to paraphrase Thomas Signamarcheix - Vice President, Strategic Development | CEA-Leti, technology research institute...
as proven through XTX 4 months ahead of schedule ( at their request) ...meantime they continue to build value add - locked in IP and prepare for the first commercial agreements to materialise around mid year, all things being equal.
Exciting times ahead in my opinion - company making developments potentially around the corner.
Personally looking forward to news around SiEn plant - but who knows where the news will come from - potentially many areas really.
These are just my opinions open to the scrutiny of all as always
GLA
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