Great question. I have moved in and out of quite a few speculative stocks over the years. The main reason I lose faith is when company announcements seem more geared to pump the SP which is then followed by a cap raising. A number of companies I've invested in have done exactly that over the years. I wait for an opportune time and move on.
My two picks in the Risk Regatta, EXR and RAC both share a number of common traits and I'm still very bullish about, especially over the next 12 to 18 months. The potential is there and I have decent holdings in both. I've seen nothing from management in either that have caused me concern. I have purchased more of both of them when the price has dropped over recent months and have never sold a share in either.
I still really like VUL and still hold but I have taken some profits off the table - I've tripled my original investment and now free carry and won't be selling anymore. My main rationale is that the company has reached a pretty significant market cap, but being a good few years away from actual production (all going well) I can't see the continuing growth on the tangent of the last twelve months.
If EXR was ten bucks a share believe me, I would have done some profit taking there as well.
EXR Price at posting:
17.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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