XMD (ASX) The Big Boys

Originally posted by Orwell: ↑

Hi Rhodes. I don't post much these days other than a couple of long term stocks I'm holding, but I did look at NCM a little while back. It's too a volatile chart and driven by the gold price so I'm not sure I'd trade it on EW at the moment.

That said, I'm looking at a monthly chart for my EW and would start the count from the Dec2013 low. (Pre-2013 it did follow EW quite closely). This gives a Wave 1 to July 2016 peak, then an unusual but still legitimate 38.2% retrace/consolidation. On this count we are now in a Wave 3. You could argue a pause on this count at 100% extension of $36.59. It's a bit too steep for me for this to be a Wave 3 though, not convinced.

On the other hand, you could also argue a Wave B, with it approaching 78.6% retrace of the Nov 2010 All Time High. I highly doubt it based on what the gold price is doing but it's still a legitimate wave count at the moment.

I think I'd rather trade it actually as a pennant breakout. With the run into the pennant from $10.71 in Nov 2015 to $27.20 in July 2016. It then consolidated and then 100% of the breakout level (Sept 2018 low of $18.58) gives you a current peak of $32,84. It's past this, but around about at the moment.

Call it $33, but maybe up to $36 if enough momentum, for the current peak before consolidating at least if not a pullback for a fair period. Not sure I'd make a call on the next leg beyond that at this time.

I basically agree with your call on levels anyway, although perhaps on a different logic.

Expand

Netlinkz NET: Just popped back here to put a chart up for slick from the Net forum. (The forum is a bit too in love with their stock to place it there)

Rather than start with a NET chart, I'm going link to a post I made back in May 2016 on the Norwood NOR forum. Link here: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/nor-charts-thread.2622565/page-2452?post_id=17679453(If that doesn't work, just put the id number at the end into the HC search forum. These patterns occur over and over and over again, so let's start with a previous example of what is currently happening to NET.

In my 2016 post I started with two NOR charts, before and after as reposted below:

In the first NOR chart above, Elliott Wave analysis showed the Wave B bounce to 50% of the prior range, marked in Red.The dotted black line showed what's was likely to happen from there i.e .a long slow bleed as true believers take time to give up, but without new buyers coming in and the underlying business doing nothing, then eventually they do.

The second NOR chart above showed what happened. It tracked the dotted black reference line pretty closely. The path isn't perfectly predictable, but the direction is. If you could be bothered looking up what's happened since this was posted on 4/5/2016, then the stock drifted down into the light blue zone, and later dropped into the purple longer term target zone of $0.01 - $0.02. It's actually now dropped below even that.

My view is that what was playing out on NOR in 2016 in the first chart is exactly where NET is now as shown below.
- the NET Elliott Wave position on the chart below is a Wave B bounce.
- Wave A dropped through 50%ATH (All Time High) at $0.152 and turned just above the 38.2%ATH level. Same as NOR did (not marked but you can check on your own chart)
- the NOR Wave B bounce went up to 50% of the prior range, marked in red at price 0.111. NET hit this point yesterday.
Note that Wave B typically bounces from 50% up to 78.6% of the prior range, which is $0.265 (Cabbie suggest 0.27 for other reasons), but I don't think NET is strong enough to get up there and I suspect 50% is it.

My prediction from here is that NOR from 2016 gives the roadmap in chart 2 above. It's eerily similar so far.
NET actually has some revenue which NOR didn't, so the business might be able to salvage something, we'll see. But nothwithstanding the company pulling a rabbit out of the hat on revenue or corporate action of some sort, e.g. another acquisition, JV or buyout or something which it may, then the future for it is NOR. I'll wait and confirm the next downturn point and then we can place a downsloping line as per NOR chart to track against.