At $10 per pound, Vanadium electrolyte makes up about $150/kw of the cost in a Vanadium battery https://www.google.com/url?q=http://ecst.ecsdl.org/content/41/17/1.full.pdf&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiY3uKHleXgAhXGV30KHcaxDrYQFjADegQICRAB&usg=AOvVaw2FqwYVQ-JvNaMGsfcwIhJz
At this price, the total battery would would be around $300/kw today. Although I expect the cost to drop significantly with the improved economics in the remaining components of the battery (ie electrode and membrane improvements), the extent of the drop will be limited by the price of Vanadium.
VRBs are much simpler to build and install; easy to maintain; they're self cooling and non-flammable and have significantly longer discharge times. These are all great advantages over lithium, and I can see big demand at under $10/pound. IMO, VRBs have therefore created a new structural buffer in the vanadium market that will prevent another drop to $5.
Having said all of that, with China's new rebar standards and the rise of India, I'm not convinced the price will drop below $10 in any case. The price of vanadium has been above $10/lb for more than 12 months for the first time in Jan this year. I'm not sure that institutions will be on board with TMT until after June this year, when (if the price stays steady) it will will have been over $15 for more than 12 months (previously it's only been above $15 for 2-3 months) - IMO the structural change in the Vanadium market will then become accepted as the new norm. Nice timing with the DFS.
TMT - low CAPEX, low OPEX - first to production?
TMT Price at posting:
25.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
