Good post. I agree with most of what you have said.
The reason I sold out after the last conference call is that the reason I had invested had actually changed. This time last year we were hopeful of strong P&G royalties, further product announcement imminent (BodyGuard, surface,etc), possibility or oral and shaver progress, etc.
After the last conference call, I sold because of:
- royalty confirmed at just 2-3% of a "wholesale price", which was significantly different to my understanding previously
- no oral or shaver progress in the short to medium term. These were potential high volume products and would have had a large impact on potential revenue
- Surface Hygiene had no real progress and the low royalty from the P&G contract had me discounting the potential of this
- engagement of Accelerators, but no talk of what they were actually doing, which to me is a red flag
- talk of going alone on products , which again is red flag as no one else wants the technology
- no real commitments on BodyGuard, just secret talk
- no Directors willing to buy shares at this "low" price
All of the above, made me re-evaluate my investment. I tried to work out how many sales P&G would need for OBJ to get some decent revenue. And as I have recently posted, it is a lot.
Looking through the questions proposed by some here, there are some that of course will not and cannot be answered. A few are quite pointed and very good and I hope it will spur the Directors into action. But others show how some HC posters may need to look at the reality of OBJ - Why, in this conference call, would you propose wasting time asking about dividends in a few years? The company is not even close to making a profit yet, so this is the last thing I would want Directors wasting any of their time on. But this was given many thumbs-up. A strategic 3 year plan being announced is what I hope for, with goals along the way and linked back to remuneration.
I am not looking at OBJ as a 3c company , but as a $60m company. Yes, there is potential, discussion with major companies and even some royalties beginning to flow. But it will take a lot of royalties to get to the stage where OBJ has made a decent amount of profits to help justify a $60m company , let alone one worth double that.
I will continue to check back and keep updated on OBJ, but for the moment, IMO, it is still very speculative and the continued announcements about discussions with potential partners, or the lodging of patents, or the knowledge that Olay is on the shelves of Walmat in Alaska, give no real meaning or direction. I agree with you - revenue is the only real thing that matters and the MV could be further hit as 4C announcements are made (if there isn't some strong, continued growth).
Time will tell, I guess, and everyone sees things differently. I am sure some have dismissed what I have said already. So, how long are you willing to wait? Good luck to all.
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