Yes it has been a very long week and month(s) for EMS...

Yes it has been a very long week and month(s) for EMS shareholders with all time lows reached, but lets put things into perspective.

We all yearn for more information, and the company has a responsibility to communicate facts to shareholders through ASX releases.

Any reasonably sophisticated investor is aware that you can gain information from key company management by speaking to them and asking questions and observing the content and manner in which answers are given.

Voicing frustrations will not achieve any concrete and tangible objective.

The EMS shareholder base is wide and varied. A look of the top 20 in todays report indicates that the Top 20 hold only 16% and to get into the Top 20 you only need to hold less than $40k based on market prices.

So plenty of retail punters in this stock.

So the facts are that Rwanda is done and Burkina Faso is treating patients. So that is 100 out of the 150 patients required.

For whatever reason the relationship between ProtoPharma and EMS has suffered since Calvin’s death.

Protopharma don’t have many other projects so its in their interest to get the Artimist trial done so they can realise some revenues. Of course its in Eastlands interests to do the same thing.
So seeing that both parties interests are aligned one cannot but feel confident that these cash flow issues will be sorted.

And it is important to remember that the issue is not between EMS and Protopharma. They are internal Protopharma issues.
EMS management are not in a position to exert significant control.
I get the sense through the announcements that EMS are trying to do all they can to assist them in solving their problems and progressing things forward.

I don’t expect Eastland management to announce what proposals they have put forward and what the internal rumblings are within Protopharma. While more information rather than less is generally welcome I cannot see how this will be productive in confidential negotiations.

This trial is moving forward and will be complete. The trial is arguably two thirds of the way through, EMS have the funds, and they have a contract.

The main uncertainty at the moment relates to timing.
As I have said above its in everyones interest to push this along.
I would imagine that the Protopharma directors have at the very least some sort of fiduciary duties to their shareholder(s) to act in their best interests.. and that would mean acknowledging and responding to any proposal that EMS has put forward regarding helping them with their cash flow issues.

In the meantime, the company has $3.5m in the bank and appears by the annual report to have the carrying value of the Artimist IP valued at $7.6m. The market cap $8.3m.

So if one were to look through the noise and think about the bigger picture, we are fully funded for a Phase III trial using an already registered product with an alternative delivery mechanism that is already shown to be easier to administer and contains higher absorption rates. The disease is one that affects an enormous amount of people and the current market cap is below book value.

It doesn’t get more compelling than this from a risk/return perspective IMO

Yes the market likes certainty and I imagine we will rally strongly once we get confirmation that the trials will continue in Tanzania and Ghana and furthermore once the trial is completed and results are being collated.

Am I saying this is risk free? Well of course not. But if one steps back from the noise and frustration and looks at what is ahead of us and the possible upside and downside risks, with a contract in place, vested interests aligned, a terrific product, a Phase III trial that is 2/3 complete, and a current market cap below book value (yes I recognise the large proportion of intangibles), I find it hard to reach any other conclusion than EMS is ridiculously cheap and the share price will be significantly higher as milestones are met.

Everyone has their own motives, circumstances, and ways of interpreting the current information (that’s what makes the market what is is). And these are my thoughts.

Good luck all