- the US investment banks use comex paper futures to set price all the time every day. undeniable.
- but just because there is an ongoing pattern of paper price suppression - doesnt mean the price wont rise
- the US investment banks - JP Morgan in particular - have had a mandate from US govt since the 1930s I think it was to control gold/silver prices so they dont emerge as a serious rival to USD as the global reserve currency.
- as a result gold and silver paper price is far lower than it would have been lacking that intervention
eg vs 1947 US debt/deficit and gold price - USD gold should be $3600+. And that is vs a time when gold was itself artificially pegged.
- but gold and to an extent silver are still considered a valuable asset and currency - one that the big players want to have appreciate when it should - just not so much that it becomes a threat to USD position - because having the reserve currency gives US about 20% of its gdp + control and a lot of other benefits
- so there';s constant suppression and misdirection to keep the overall chart height lowered - but they still release the hand and allow for big rises at points when the economics support that
- reddit silver crowd are simply trying to get to a place where physical demand is so great that the financial risk causes an unwind of that control function by sucking out ounces that would otherwise be used to back issuing paper contracts used for manipulation
- they tried 'pressure at a point' in Feb - but frankly they are outgunned. the big players can always mint more paper to control short term price if willing to take the risk. the technical pop at that time I think was a much a headfake run by the investment banks to wrongfoot investors as it was a response to real physical silver demand
- but reddit crowd's leaders always said the overall goal was a long run seige to just keep netting off marginal ounces to tighten the market with a view to breaking overexposed insto shorters whenever silver sustainably moves higher
- imo its likely they may break some of the least disciplined players. But they wont wrongfoot JPM if its just a 'price shock'. More than likely JPM will be pushing the price higher and positioned to benefit
The only likely break to overall market control would imo be where physical shortage becomes so pronounced even shrewd players were under-reserved
Reddit cant break the market control by itself. Its just constant gnawing at the edges. Though the massive shift from people investing in JPM controlled PM etfs to Sprott controlled is a true blow. If that holds true over time that will have a massive effect on the levers JPM can pull
if you want a really obvious example of price manipulation - have a look at gold in May the night the first shock CPI was announced
what did paper gold/silver do for ~36 hours
then look at what it did over the next month
what the US bankers are trying to do is snuff out enthusiasm among broad investors - wrongfoot and punish them - yet get the benefit for themselves
we've had hot US cpi now 3 months running - many of the non technically trained bulls will have given away their gold/silver positions as not providing the inflation linked value increase they expected
which makes this the time when the paper prices are most likely going to start rising
typically what the bankers do is compress the time over which the PMs appreciate but juice the speed of the move - then overextend it at the top to catch retail going long just as they leave the field - then they rip it lower
this is how they keep the overall 'wave height' of paper prices lower over the long term - while still getting the investment performance they expect from the assets
precisely what happened last August
i dont think there's any coincidence that gold/silver took an artificially high final surge in first week of aug 2020 - coinciding with cryptos starting to breakout the week prior
