The BOM would have made their forecasts based on the conditions that existed at the time, there is no way they could have known when the Indian Ocean Dipole would switch and once again put warm waters off Australia's NW. The Ocean's cycles are poorly understood, not just the IOD but PDO and AMO etc etc. without knowing when these systems are going to change it is not possible to give accurate long range forecasts. The same applies to climate. They are not able to put the effect of clouds in their models that are crude at best and are useful for studying climate but useless in making predictions and this is what they use to base their forecasts of future warming.
