the boom is over, page-16

O.K guys, let me start by saying that I am a property Bull. Have always made money on property and still think that money will be made on property LONG TERM.

50% retrace. I assume you mean from the absolute top of the market 2 years back. Possibly, as those prices were ridiculous.

Some suburbs in Australia will get smashed, some will remain resilient.

So my observations go:

Moved to Mandurah 2003.

Bought a crappy little 4 x 1 single brick for $160000.

Was looking at (dreaming more to the point) a lovely double story on the cut for $770000.

Move forward 3 years.

Sold the house for $315000. However during the peak the house was probably worth (I mean could be sold for) $360000.

The mansion (similar prices in the area for type of house) rose to $1.4 million.

Today:

The house would probably be lucky to get $250-$260000 and the double story about $900 000.

I know that's far from 50% (not that far) but agree we have another couple of years left to run of negative property values. SO MAYBE, JUST MAYBE we could be seeing a 50% retrace.

However the new house I live in has only ever been valued at it's peak of about $550 000. Neighbour got his valued the other day at $460 000. So some areas haven't been hit hard (yet). The middle of the range houses seem to be holding up reasonably well.

Just my observations.