Hi allI haven't posted here for a while but I do continue to...

Hi all

I haven't posted here for a while but I do continue to hold watch on with interest.

There is always lots of discussion about the share price (which is fair enough I suppose as we are all here to invest) but it seems to me that everyone has all missed the big developments of the last week in the general cancer testing market?

I just don't see people on here reading what's going on in the world around them?

I was waiting for someone to bring it up in discussion - but it's been over a week now and no one has mentioned that the first cancer blood test has now been launched by Grail over in the US on 7 June.

It's actually two things to me.

Exciting that the world has a cancer blood test for use (YAY!!) and exciting that the blood cancer testing market is now real and live!

I will watch it with interest to see how the sales work out.

It has interestingly been launched with a retail price of $949 a test and the results of a test should come back in about 12 days.

Anyone in the US can get a test on the recommendation of a doctor - you must pay for it yourself and it is considered prescription only. The FDA is yet to approve it for wider use and Insurance companies are not yet onboard.

Interestingly, the UK's NHS is interested in using the test to screen a million smokers in a few years and will be doing a trial with 150,000 participants starting in a few months - so clearly they are excited by the possibilities.

So what are they saying about future sales?

Grail is currently targeting people over 50 million people over 50.

By 2035 the cost is expected to drop to $300 a test but have a target market of over 150 mil people. It means a market in excess of $45 billion p.a in JUST THE US within 15 years.

So why do we care?

Well it's validation that cancer blood tests are going to get used widely in the future and we will hopefully have one through the SuBb2m tests if BD1 can continue to prove its worth.

So what's Grail's test actually got? Well it has the Galleri test.

It tests for 50 different types of cancer.

They are big in advertising that it has a low false positive rate (less than 1% - i.e. is 99.5% specificity). So approx 1 in 200 people who take the test will freak out but have no cancer (which honestly is pretty good!!)

They claim that when the test indicates cancer it can tell you where in the body in 89% of positive hits. Again super impressive!

But here's the kicker.

It's only (and I use this term loosely as its still pretty amazing) 76.3% sensitivity for detecting cancers that cause 2/3 of cancer deaths in the US.

Which means it will still miss 1 in 4 cancers.

Now don't get me wrong - I'm super happy the world is soon to be using a blood test to pick up 3 in 4 of the main killer cancers.

BUT our preliminary results on SubB2m are sitting on 100% sensitivity for ALL STAGES of ovarian cancer and 95% for ALL STAGES of Breast Cancer!!

And this is the beginning as it's a PAN cancer marker so more work is still to come on other cancers.

Now for us it's still super early days and there is lots still to be done which is why we are the market cap we are.

But you have got to be in it to win it and we have a pretty exciting ticket!

So my thoughts on the share price decline lately? Well the market was pretty hot when the results first hit and it was all exciting and people dreamed big. Now the shine has come off a bit and the reality of the long term nature of biotechs has kicked in.

But the dream is still as big as it was before and there is still lots be excited for in the future.

Grail is valued by Illumina at $8 Billion (we are currently approx $150 mil). So only 53 times more than we are lol. That said they are much much further advanced - spent $billions in R&D / cap raisings to get where they are and have an exciting product.

If we can keep our specificity results in the 90%'s and develop the tests to the point to be able to launch into the market we sure won't stay at $150 mil market cap. Our test won't need to be to detect 50 cancers for it to be a game changer.

Good luck all - and please - more research and less commentary on every share trade!

Now it's been launched there is heaps of info out there.

Grail have released extra research info on their test - there are articles about the cancer testing market - other competitors etc.

So hit Google people and DYOR!!

Cheers Hevlet.