the bottom line is this

Lynas still has plenty of upside potential, and is in better shape technically and financially than Moly, but the simple fact of the matter is that current RE prices are below LYC's cost of production (LYC's costs are rising because they have to maintain idle phase II capacity).

So if LYC starts shipping phase I production at current prices, it will essentially be losing money.

By some metrics, RE prices need to rise by around 30% before LYC becomes solidly profitable.

LYC's best hope is to convince customers to pay a substantial (30%?) premium to the spot price in exchange for security of supply and avoidance of the price spikes we have seen in the past. LYC's customers may well agree to this, but until we have clear confirmation that they have agreed, or until we see a significant recovery in the RE spot prices, lyc is a hold. LYC is asking a lot from its customers; the probability of them agreeing to pay a significant premium couldn't be higher than 50%.

There are plenty of arguments supporting the view that that heavy RE prices will recover strongly over the next few years. However, prices of the light RE (which LYC overwhelmingly depends upon) have a more cloudy outlook. If light RE prices don't recover significantly in the foreseeable future, LYC will have to completely rethink its business model.