I made this post before reading the COT report. Some additional comments...
Per the latest COT report, on ES contract, small specs have reduced the number of long positions and have added sizable amount of short positions while large specs have reduced short positions and added sizable amount to long positions. There has been a steady decline in small spec bullishness during the past 5 weeks, while large spec bullishness has remained flat over the past 5 weeks.
However, on the SP contract there has been a 15% decrease in bullish bet(week on week) by large specs and there has been steady increase in bullish bets by small specs during the past 5 weeks! This is a big trend shift in large spec and during the past 5 weeks they've become 5% more bearish. Arguably, data is delayed by few days and it represents positions as of Aug 16, which is few days before OPEX. Next week's report should offer some clarity.
If I was long, I'd sell and take profits off the table. If I was short, I'd use the chance cover and buy pullbacks. No point shorting this - this is very crowded trade.
Next week Jackson Hole meeting and UK GDP and US GDP data.
(20min delay)