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@cha thank you once again for your excellent and extensive...

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Xenius

1,127 Posts.

612

01/07/20

22:28

Post #: 45582084
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Originally posted by cha ↑

thanks Xenius
I appreciate the heads up from you. your calls on the goldie specs have been literally gold!
yes I am well and yes GMR is a spec definitely on my radar.

I was going to post on the gold price at a nice juncture here.
We spoke of a possible cup and handle on gold in recent months. it has played out on the weekly with obvious benefits to the goldies.
now it is worth looking at it on the monthly to see the potential for a cup and handle there.
if that plays out then it will blow me away. cup and handles work well with gold but so too do double tops so each to their own level of risk.

you can also review it with a gant chart. it was a good 5-6 years from its highs of 2012/13 before it really got going again. a hell of a journey.we have also spoken of safe haven money having a pattern of flowing out of the dow and then into the $US and then gold before it churns again. here we have talk of the $US failing for various reasons with safe haven money having nowhere to go this week except gold.
for asx goldies we also have the added bonus that the $AUS is on a tear up with the failure of the $US.

we also have the JPY finally breaking up towards the parity level with the $US. that move has been decades happening. it rose from 80c to 90c a few years back with $1 the target. it is a chance here. anyway i am sure there will be many moves and churns but the possibility of the pattern is still intack for now. it is historic times.

i had the gant countermove on gold for 2020 and have said that for years 2020 was my year to sell my goldies.
will it be the traditional counter-move of 6 to 12 months or more long lasting for a true run of 5 or 6 years for gold. if silver kicks in and break $20 then it will take goldies up as well on inflation.
i am hopeful. i think it will get harder just here and will now need to focus on individual stock choices for rerates more than ever. the easy days of the shotgun approach of choosing rrl at $1 evn at 56c nst at 66c etc etc are long gone.
some have failed like try still sub 10c, moy fail completely, pnr was a fail but rerating now on higher gold, etc etc

Xenius well done on your calls on deg which has a bonanza resource and also ami. both rerating here.there are quite a few running this year. I was excited to see my little spec rms run from 3.9c and has now just hit $2.00 again. it makes up for a lot that just churn and never go anywhere. the count or levels worked well on rms. at $2 many years ago i said it was too high and it fell to $1. at $1 i said it could really collapse which it did. then at 3.9c i called it and it has taken each level back up. this time at $2 plus i think it is being valued a bit over high again but no complaints to give gold a chance to spike here
i agree GMR is as good a prospect as any of the micro-specs just here for a gain in share price. historically people got burnt 5 years ago on it. it also has a small zinc resource in south america i think.West Africa is now a recognised gold mining area with some risks. PIR had major success there.WAF is another which has incredible results and rerating as we speak.
the only comments I can add is GMR has announced its drill program and it needs to turn the bit and deliver to rerateit does face the wet season over the next 3 months gmr also in a similar position last year. GMR announced in october 2019 that it had partially completed its drill program before it suspended it due to the july wet seasonit obviously had moderate success last year and this is now take 2. it is successful to some extent already so will it convert a resource of less than 1m ounces (or whatever the figure now is) to over the 1 million levelit reminds me of pir in 2010 where its resource was less than 1 million and it had golden announcement after announce,emt. well it has that potential anyway so it is a no brainer chance here.
pir was 10c at that level and the risk to return is good but with the usual no guarantee of a successful drill campaign.i would expect it to have a quiet few months here with the wet season approaching.
i said a few months back that oku in a similar area could be quiet here with its wet season. it has been churning around but will see what it can do this year.also we can't forget the base metal specs.
ozl is leading the way and should continue as base metals find their feet.
mcr is rerating as a decent spec in its base metal shere. it has been slow but it is a good counter balance to the goldies which can spike and fall quickly. czi is another minnow slowly rerating as its project becomes more viable with decent prices in base metals.

PNR
another gold spec i am onto is pnr. it was disappointing to see its fall to 10c on weaker gold prices but it is slowly rerating as its project looks more promising with better macros.the pnr chart mirrors the cup and handle on gold
the notes i have on the fundamentals of pnr this year is that it has a 50% share of the norseman mine
croesus bought norseman from wmc in 2002 and went under in 2006it is a mine over 100 years old. will it deliver for pnr.

will pnr survive and make a go of it unlike croesus. norseman closed it in 2014. pantaro is trying
They also have other projects. Norseman seems to hang in the balance so still some risk but decent potential. if gold keeps rising then it will derisk it as it becomes a viable project at least until gold has next wave downIt is also underground mining which is always a more expensive and potentially unknown risk

The other projects for Pantaro include halls creek.
Halls Creek has a high asic of $1892 but it is expected to improve. I could not even find the asic for norseman in their report. It is fairly clear it will rerate with stable gold above $1900 and also if and as asic improvesbut there is a real risk of problems or if the gold price falls that it will struggle.mind you has cash of over $20m but it needs to work through and release the capex figuresThe report has a lot in it but it is not as clear as gor which was one of best seen - a few years back now when it was at 60c.
Gor gave a lot more encouragement on the clarity of its plan to follow it. Sar also at $2 plus level had a great report and prospectsPNR is still a work in progress and early in its development and remains an unknown albeit with real potential.trading style
instead of buying specs like pnr and setting a stop and it gets sold off it is worth looking at an educated guess when it falls by 50% which it did to 10c and then seeing if it has the same prospects and if so then holding some. when it gets through 20c level convincingly then it is a potential darvis style break.

who knows it may be the next sar which ran from 13c to over $5 or it may be the next failure like moy.
it does not matter with prudent amounts and let the winners run and run and run with the right macros
the question for me is always what is the next macro to rerate and with the best chance of real returns. silver uranium and copper and base metals are my thoughts. if they run then there are a host of massive massive rerates stored up. same as goldies at their lows.

i have even set up back in a rare earth stock so it is a good spread ultimately it will be the cash returning stocks via divvies for a decent portfolio but each to their own

anyway that is my star trek log in for now and i am back anxiously waiting to see what gold copper silver uranium rare earths etc do for the rest of 2020. then i think it will be time to look at the macquaries and jb hifis of the world again
also well done to 64 on his call of the break up on aqg. his calls are worth listening to on each level of the trade. i was onto aqg as an investor from the $2 level. with its merger activity i am now out but it was a good run
all the best to everyone. i am more of an investor for the last few years. 64 also thanks for the link to the ALK discussion at the 70c level. i think you are right. i have been an investor from 20c so it encouraged me to chance my arm a bit on it and it has worked. double top here or darvis break? evn sliced through $1.10 when it doubled from 56c level so will see what alk can do just here.
lots lots more happening but enough for now

Expand

@cha thank you once again for your excellent and extensive response to my post & apologies for my delayed acknowledgement of it.

Your thoughts in relation to GMR are largely in line with my own. The only point of difference (if there even is one) is that I was drawn to this opportunity on the back of the addition of a visionary Chairman (pre Covid19) and the opportune knock down of the share price related to the CR post the Covid19 market melt down - in other words a near perfect combination of events converged to create an excellent buying opportunity. This is not too dissimilar a situation to what to led my investment in DEG in Sep last year.

The company had been on my radar since last year but the decision to sharpen my focus on it was largely on the back of this 13 min presentation from Feb this yr:

http://www.goldenrim.com.au/site/content/videos/Exp20_GoldenRimResources.mp4

I am also curious about your outlook on the gold price in that you nominate this as "the yr to sell your goldies" (or double top) but on the other hand are looking for a possible monthly cup and handle on the chart which would be a very bullish development. If I can put you on the spot, is there a scenario you see as more likely of the two or is it a line ball situation at present?

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