S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries (ASX:XSO) - The Brains Trust - 2020, 45723378, page-1682 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by Tanotfa ↑

Hi @paddington bear ... Just wanted to say "well done on your US$1800 call for POG" ... it got there last night as I'm sure you know.

Looking at a long-term Monthly Futures Chart of POG(GC) ... you can see we are just about at a critical TA horizontal Resistance band($1828 - $1911). We are also just under an important Pitchfork(Mod. Schiff) median tyne line than has its 'anchor points' starting at the 2008L then 2011H to 2015L. So agree that POG might find it difficult to get thru here and could/should consolidate.

I say consolidate because I'm still long-term bullish and am looking for an upside near 2438.5(on GC) in the current Bull before any potential medium-term pullback.

But that's long-term stuff and I know your call was very much short-term...

View attachment 2289576

Now to add weight to this Long-Term barrier near/at current highs have a look at this Monthly Gann Fan/Arc Pairings Chart ... Observe we are currently right at the 3rd outer arc pairings extreme BUT also back to the important Gann 1 x 1 fan support now resistance and 2nd Arc Pairing horizontal resistance levels(shown dotted). SOooo, not a bad area to exit longs or even enter shorts with tight stops. IF GC can close above these 3rd Arc Pairings(remember at month's end) then that would be bullish and should signal a move towards the next arc pairings. However, if we start to see committed rejection from here(remember, also rejection from Gann 1 x 1) then that's not good for it could signal a move down to look for the Gann 2 x 1 fan line(crimson on chart) or near that 161.8% Fib level. BUT, at this stage that is not favoured.

View attachment 2289654

Expand

Nice to hear that your analysis points to a much higher gold target Tanotfa.

I have done some work using a pitchfork but in a different manner.

I believe we could be in one of those phases where gold gets to run hard and fast for some considerable time as it did from 2009 -2011. However, within that run there are and willl be some some decent % retracements along the way - it's in gold's nature ! You can see the pitchfork on my GLD chart for that run. Not surprisingly, it ended with the strongest phase or movement to extremes right at the conclusion, with confirmation being the break of the lower pitchfork line/trendline in late 2011. I can't say I truly anticipate the same with the current run, but it's something I will for sure keep a close eye on.

You can also see the pitchfork for the current run on my chart which was broken only for the 'liquidity' event in March. Another important observation I would make and it doesn't apply just to gold, is that once you experience a strong momentum run for a considerable amount of time, the break of the strong momentum will most likely conclude the run or at best, result in a lengthy consolidation period. So I am going to place a lot of importance on the lower pitchfork line to hold.

I also have a pitchfork for the chart of Gold in $A. I was able to draw a valid trendline since the April 2019 lows. Again, I am looking for the lower support line to hold. It's also those moves to the extremities that unsurprisingly lead to the largest retracements.