The Brains Trust - 2020, page-1928

@eieio I had a look at COT (as well as the CBOE PCR) more than 10 years ago. I had a look at what "conventional wisdom" said about both and found no real correlation except at markets extremes and only in hindsight. You could have backtested it and said "oh yeh...it does work" but it's all relative. Probably the best you could hope for is it to alert you to conditions that are out of the ordinary, but I don't believe you can assign an arbitrary number and say "it's overbought and due for a fall" or vice versa. I note looking at Mishs' article that there has been a change of methodology regarding the COT, but I'm not inclined to check out whether the new methodology is better than the old.

As for Mish (Mike Shedlock) himself, i used to read a newsletter of his back before the GFC. He did predict that something bad was coming, but he was about a year early. Having said that, he's one of the better analysts writing about markets, but I don't read him (or any other newsletter writer) these days.