I'm very green with Gold, so would be good to get some feedback on my "theory". I've been looking around trying to understand the different dynamics when I came across this article from August 2015 ( https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2015/08/03/weak-australian-dollar-help-miners-shrug-off-gold-price-slide.html ) that is discussing how OZ Gold miners were doing well even as POG falling because Aussie dollar was also falling. What was interesting were some comments about Oil price (and energy costs) also having a major impact on bottom line. So after comparing on a chart, looking for the most direct relationships, it seems that the foundations for a significant spike in OZ Goldies are laid after a period of falling AUD and Oil- to a point where they are both historically low.
The last time that happened was leading up to December 2018, and before that late 2015 - and right now. So my theory is that yes the XGD goldies are way oversold compared to the POG, but once the fundies etc have finished raiding their Gold piggy banks to cover losses/margin calls in other areas, the stage has been set for another significant spike up as soon as POG so much as thinks about another up move.
Is this too simplistic? Or something that is obvious to all but newbies to Gold like me? Or wrong? Here's the comparison chart- apologies for the mess but I promise after a couple of your favourite drinks it is very clear- Oil is the black line, Gold is gold, XGD is green, AUD/USD is purple.
(20min delay)