Having lurked in the shadows for a long time reading these posts, since the time Pisces was still around, and given there still seem to be so many people in the general community out there who don’t take this virus seriously I thought I should venture into the light briefly and provide some colour for those that may be interested in the opinion of someone who has been working in medicine for over 20 years. I apologise in advance for the gloom and doom.
First a quick thanks to @paddington bear for the tireless and selfish work you put into your posts, @3500 for some interesting leads, @Bundy for nonjudgmental opinions (you probably won’t remember but a long time ago you and I had a disagreement about what was going to happen to the share price of AVZ; you were correct and I have always wanted to acknowledge that) and all the other regular posters on here.
I have been tracking this virus since December, having considered both the clinical and epidemiological information available publicly. And some of the knowledge has altered as we learn increasingly more about the natural disease history (the incubation period for example was thought initially to be longer than the average week or so currently accepted).
As far as I can ascertain currently, the most pertinent statistics about this virus are as follows. Depending on age and any co-morbidities, it appears that when one is infected one has about 80% chance of having a relatively mild form, about 15% chance of developing a moderate form that requires supplemental oxygen (usually a hospital bed) and about 5% chance of developing ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) requiring intubation in ICU. It is pretty much a given, that if you require intubation and this is not available, you will almost certainly die. Out of the ICU patients, it seems that one in about five or so die (overall case fatality rate is about 1-2%).
Remember that once you are intubated in ICU, it usually takes a few weeks to recover, during which time you occupy that ICU bed, so it is not available for any one else. Also remember that it takes about 3 weeks or more to go from infection to requiring ICU, as it takes time for the infection to damage your lungs enough to require intubation.
The epidemiology of comparable societies (ie Western democratic countries), appears to be that the infected rate grumbles along until it reaches the number of 100, and then it begins to grow roughly at about 20% per day. 100 becomes 40k in 28 days. From 40k upwards there is not a lot of data regarding Western societies, though we are about to get some as Italy, Germany, US and Spain are there or almost there. I do not think that anyone in the Western world will be able to achieve what China did for democratic reasons, so I don’t think China offers a valid model for us. Italy are continuing to increase at almost 20% per day past 40k by the way.
Australia had about 2300 ICU beds last year. We are at 2000 cases or so now. Unchecked, we would arrive at around 40k in about two to three weeks, which is pretty much when the wave of ICU admissions would really ramp up. 5% of 40k is 2000, or almost the entire ICU beds available last year (I know we are desperately trying to add more currently).
The virus seems to be relatively contagious, like the flu, though obviously it is difficult to be exact about this. Some have estimated a 30-50% infection rate in the general population. But even if it’s only 10% (unchecked), with a population of 25 million or so, we have 2.5 million infected, and 5% of this (that would require intubation) is 125k or over 50 times the current number of ICU beds available. If the infection rate reaches 30% to 50%, we are looking at 375k to 625k ICU admissions. Multiply those numbers by three to get the number of normal hospital beds required to treat the patients with the moderate form. There is a very real threat (without spread containment) to have hundreds of thousands of people left without life saving medical treatment. Hundreds of thousands.
These are not alarmist numbers, they are factual and is what will happen if we don’t control it’s spread. The lack of ICU beds, which each cost about 4K a day to run by the way, and general hospital beds for the 15% who require oxygen, is why the government is so desperately trying to flatten the curve.
This is the enemy the health profession is facing. And those that trivialise it or don’t give it the respect and attention it requires are part of the problem in my opinion, and I can pretty much guarantee will not be the ones picking up the pieces when the hospitals become over run and people start dying in the emergency rooms corridors because of restricted access to oxygen beds/ICU.
As to what impact this and trying to control the spread of the virus will have on the world economy, well that is another matter. But make no mistake, this is a real threat. It’s not a hoax or an exaggeration, and it is coming. The best treatment we have at the moment is to avoid getting it (or get it really early while there are still free ICU beds should you need one, though this is not medical advice). I sincerely hope the doom predictions are wrong, and I sincerely hope that these economic shut downs are overkill, because the alternative is too horrible to think about.
I am not saying all hope is lost of course, but awareness of the disease and it’s potential to take human lives is paramount. Containment is the best mass treatment we have at the moment, hence the extreme measures taken by many governments recently. I hope for everyone’s sake they work.
(20min delay)