No one wants a repeat of Italy or Spain experience.
many people have been modelling the magnitude of the infection......Angela Merkel "threatened" that 70% of Germans could be infected.
These are just wild figures.
If we take Italy as a worst case scenario (they were completely taken off guard, acted too late too little)
The infected cases is currently around 0.1% of the population....Assume it goes up 10x.....That is 1%....A far cry from Merkel's figure. .
Any unprepared health care system will get overwhelmed with just a few hundreds of really sick people in a short space of time.
I am all for extreme lockdown for a few weeks.....A halfhearted one will lead to a very painful & prolonged nightmare.
We should take leaf out of China's book.
The Brains Trust - 2020, page-668
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