The Brains Trust - 2020, page-865

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stormyweather

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06/04/20

09:23

Post #: 43896439
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Originally posted by paddington bear: ↑

Still have not been able to update all my charts - moving is a huge undertaking and moving states makes it even more dramatic. But isn’t life cruel – we decided to move to Queensland to be near the family and now can’t even see them other than to wave to them over the fence! And as an example of just how serious the situation is with the airlines, the original flight we were booked on was cancelled but a later flight still only had eleven passengers.

When Wall Street broke earlier in the year, I suggested that the only market history that it resembled was 1929 and I feared that we would be about to suffer what followed. Sadly, since then the markets have given a good impression of actually following that line of history and the economic fallout that followed.

Trying to look at the big picture, which I have to say is difficult when the range of trading each day is still very extreme, the most encouraging point I can find is that most indices are trading right on their downtrends so it wouldn’t take much to break through these lines to give us a further rally. So, the next couple of days are really important. The NASDAQ Comp possibly holds the key as it has tried to lead through this entire debacle. However, another failure would suggest the indices would have to come back and test their recent lows. But bear in mind that ultimately, I believe will see the Comp around 5000 – closed Friday at 7373.

I suspect the US dollar might be the key. Since this crisis began, the US dollar initially fell, then rallied back up under its all-time high before then retracing half that rise – you get the picture – very volatile. This trading in the dollar has left me wondering if there might be more going on here than meets the eye. We all know that governments around the world are spending money faster than they can create it which got me thinking if there might be thoughts on creating something like a crypto-dollar Give them the opportunity to even splash more cash. And also, we can’t forget we have an election looming in the US……

When looking at our own market, zeroing in on stocks like Westpac, if that breaks down from the little upslanting pattern it has formed over the past few weeks, then the price is likely to come back to around its recent low. But if this stock and others like it can’t hold those recent lows, then I’m afraid these patterns will only signal a longer-term half-way mark in the decline. As with New York a few very important days coming up - we need to nudge above these awful downtrends.

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Thanks Paddington for your expert analysis, as always!

OT. Hope you enjoy the Queensland weather. We did a similar move - from ACT to the Sunshine Coast, to be close to family living in Brisbane. May as well have stayed where we were but at least we don't have to face up to another of those Canberra winters!

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