I have been saying for weeks and weeks that the only way epidemiologist and infection control specialists can work out what the true infection rate and infection fatality rate is for Covid-19 is by testing, testing, testing the population. Without this we cannot work out who is/was infected and who wasn’t and we cannot work out what the percentage of deaths are until we have those figures.
The recent development of blood tests for antibodies is very heartening, I have written about this in previous posts and I am not going to repeat myself. I am fully aware of the effect co-morbidities have on the death rate and the quandary that presents itself when ascribing the cause of death on a death certificate.
As an NHS pathologist, I have no doubt that Dr Lee is a prominent expert in his field, which is pathology. I do not know whether his field was that of the dead and post-mortem studies or that of the hospital pathologist who deals more with the living. However, Dr Lee was neither an epidemiologist nor an infection control specialist. His views, which are valid and worthy of consideration are at one end of the spectrum of the puzzle that is the transmission rate, the incubation period, the mortality and morbidity rate of the coronavirus.
There is little doubt in my mind that when we emerge from this current epidemic, there will be a vast army of armchair experts who will emerge to flood social and mainstream media with their views on whether the right or wrong approach was taken by this or that Government. It’s inevitable. Epidemiology is NOT an exact science, those working in the field are learning as they go, they are doing their utmost to keep Australians safe. Mistakes will be made, wrong assumptions will be acted upon and we will be inconvenienced.
Anyone who has worked at the bench in science will know that, in order to reach the goal, it’s often a matter of one step forward and two steps backwards. Sometimes the hypothetical goal is recognised as being wrong or unachievable, so start again, go back and re-read the peer-reviewed papers, work out another approach ... scientists stand on the shoulders of those who have gone before.
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