Orr new 5 year high approaches head and shoulders 5 years ago made a higher low when it fell in 2016
the head and shoulders seems to be working on quite a few just here. it may be the new "hammer" for those interested
what works from year to year depends on where we sit in the market
we had our GFC meltdown from 2008/9 and then hammer after hammer to signify a change in trend in each macro and each stock especially the midcaps. the real risk became the clear danger of the spike up and then down to fib level 1 or 2. even worse the danger of buying the spike and then sitting on losses. hence the strategy of buying the hammer or spike down and waiting for better times to sell. those who chase things like gold last year are taking a huge risk. 50-50 from here. it always is at every level. 1900 gold is a lot different from taking a punt when it fell to $1200 and then held it on the backtest. but i remain hopeful here as ever.
orr was a classic example of the head and shoulders pattern in play. i posted on it at 15c so did snout from memory. no one seemed too excited by it but potential was always there with good fa.
the mistake is not then watching it for the recovery. it is often slow and solid and then sell when it hits the old resistance
you can tell a lot with volume and also time to identify the short hard spike down and then the spike up
time is perhaps the most important indicator of the lot
there is a lot to be made on the gradual recovery of these specs after the head and shoulders plays out
now is the time to sell it of course if it makes it through just here then we will have the backtest to rebuy if we want to
so as a wise poster on here said now is the time with orr to sell some and hold some just here and/or recheck the level and rebuy
there are others at the same point and also called on here at the time. dkm tripled to its old high and looks like getting through 30c level
hch a few times from 2c to 4c and then the break and now the backtest of 4c is in play.
agg, aqg and wsa at $2 level
ozl from $2 to $12 and then $7 and now $20
ncm to $7.50
dont need to even buy it on the way down. just wait for the backtest and assess. when ncm got back to $12.50 and held that level then an easy buy. not so easy here to buy it. same with ozl at $20
spx loved it at 666. then recovered to just above 1050 backtested and now 3700 and took whole market up with it
it is big picture. add the fib levels to your charts and expand the timeframe and also the 50% backtest of the spike and you get powerful tools which often work to the cent on the big moves. you can then reduce the charts to shorter time frames and see the levels in play time after time. i did call them but stopped. everyone works to their own system including me and nothing wrong with that. but as someone famous and successful at sport once said - it helps to review what worked for him and what didnt and focus on his strengths. so with the market what has worked for you and what do you see working for you this year?
the count works better with the midcaps but money is money.
all good fun important point is working out what is working each year in the market. we had churn down last quarter. this quarter looks like churn up but it is still just churn
i see a lot of focus on clq on here which is another example of the head and shoulders pattern. i called its first run and it followed the usual levels. 12c then 24c then 40c then 60c to 70c and backtest of 40c to 50c and then $1 plus before the spike and then the head and shoulders kicked in. been years since then and now the head and shoulders has played out. it is trying here and hit old 40c level. now backtest of 20c. iti is a lot like hch from 2c to 4c for years before finally some decent announcements i would wait for it to retake 40c convincingly here and reread its announcements. hch and clq have the same potential but could take a long time. a higher low would have been better when it fell also apc just here. another old one just challenging old high of 16c. doubt it will make it here but all good fun. needs to take 22c level and backtest successfully before get too excited tam another alk was another. run from 20c to $1 has been a ripper. 1st fib hit and found some support. can easily fall back to 50% level or even fib 2. rvr another head and shoulders. trend reversal and needs to take out old high of 40c. but the journey from 10c to 40c is the one that does the job for me. then reassess. that is the here and now of this little xmas run the rest of the year may end up churn but will see last year followed the normal seasonal pattern. nothing wrong with that. this year? a very nervous case of so far so good. if and when we do hit new levels on the commodities then we will see darvis break after darvis break on the asx. it was a bad time on the asx even after the gfc recovery. the asx recovery is happening at last and we will see it. the question as always is timing. the US recovered at our expense with its one sided trade deals. we are a different market. it frustrated me that our commodity stocks all fell and took years to recover even some lost ground. now just waiting for that break up. bhp ozl sto - time to shine guys and lead the way but when will you let rip? rio has done it. macquarie employ the best of the best and recovered bhp has all the pieces of the puzzle but almost an old boys club with a number of failed deals. time for them to lead the way for once anyway enough of my review of my rubbish. time is what is needed now in this quarter and reassess
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